Seahawks vs. 49ers: Game Previews You'll Want To Read

This is a big game. The winner gets a formidable step up on the division, and there is a budding rivalry that smells like spite. Darrell Jackson has something to prove, Frank Gore is mouthing off, and Lofa Tatupu is looking to slam the door on his running lanes.

I'm white-knuckling already. I'm making my grocery list for the gameday feast, but I have a feeling that I won't have much of an appetite. This kind of competitive shit is as good as it gets.

Needless to say, I've been deeply interested in matchups and analysis this week--and there is some good stuff out there:

• The best analysis of the bunch is over at Field Gulls. John Morgan hits heavily on the reason and history of the niners' recent offensive struggles, how Shaun Alexander may be a liability, and the best way to attack the existing personnell in the 3-4 alignment. A definite must-read. Then jump over and check out his Matchupalooza between Lofa Tatupu and Moran Norris.


• The Examiner gives up Three Keys to Victory.


• The 49ers Observer gives a fair overview, sort of a Seahawks 101.


• NFLGameAnalysis.com makes this matchup their Feature Preview.

My two cents? With Alexander playing one-armed, the Seattle linebackers hyperfocusing on Gore, this is bound to be a low scoring affair. The difference of the game will be Seattle's secondary (especially Grant and Russell) keeping a solid grip of the 'niner's passing game, enabling the front seven to focus entirely on Gore. With the low score, Seattle's superior special teams will break the niner's backs. Seattle 20, San Francisco 16.

(Thanks to 2*2*2 at SeahawkBlue for the cool pic! Click on it for actual coolness.)

Aaron Schatz is Death on Shaun Alexander

In the wake of Adam Schein bringin' the love on Shaun Alexander, Aaron Schatz pulls the rug out from under his logic.

Since 1978, only six running backs lost more than 1.5 yards per carry off their rushing average, with a minimum 200 carries each season. Only two of these running backs were 26 or older: Alexander and Barry Sanders. Sanders dropped from 6.1 yards per carry in 1997 to 4.3 yards per carry in 1998, and then retired.

If we loosen the restrictions a bit in our search for historical comparables, we still don't find many older backs with a drop-off to match Alexander's fall in 2006. From 1978 through 2005, only eight running backs age 28 or older declined by more than 1 yard per carry with a minimum 150 carries each season. Sanders, Curtis Martin, and Randy McMillan never played again. James Brooks, Marion Butts, and Corey Dillon each retired after one more year. Mike Anderson and Jerome Bettis went through a period of ineffectiveness, although each eventually rebounded for at least one good season.

Shut up, bitch. Tell me what I want to hear.

This is intolerable.

Shaun is Old, So What?

Here's a link for all of you who are like me-- sick of all the "Shaun is 30 years old, expect him to slow way down" talk.

Midgets with Jetpacks (great name for a blog, BTW) does some nice statistical analysis for you on running backs in their thirties.

As you can see, the trend is promising for older running backs. Since 1999, each season has had at least 2 running backs with 1,000 yards or more (with the exception of 2002). And, since 1998, with the exception of 2002, there has been at least one running back aged 30 or older who has topped 1,200 yards each season.

There is much more to to it than that, go check it out for yourself.

Just another reason I expect Shaun to have another great year.