Alan's Gambling Guide: Week 3

Holy shit! This blog is active again! There are posts...I had to go look for last week's gambling guide! There are pictures of God, comic book sound effects, and copious amounts of alcohol! 

Wait...let me check something.

(holds breath)

OK, good. Sweet. Lets do this. Last week I was 9-6  (Houston and Baltimore did not play, resulting in 15 games), bringing my overall record to 18-13. Not bad. The thing that strikes me about this week's games are that nearly all the home teams are favored. Usually there's a decent amount of road favorites to make things interesting. However, Vegas has only deemed Dallas as worthy of being favored on the road...in Green Bay no less. We all know the NFL wouldn't be boring enough to have all the home teams win, so this should be a fun week.

Home teams in CAPS, lines taken from the Las Vegas Hilton, via covers.com

SEATTLE (-9.5) over St. Louis

When was the last time an 0-2 team was nearly a double digit favorite (and is on two books listed at Covers)? It helps when the opponent is also 0-2, but still. However, the Rams have already given up 10 sacks this year and Seattle's front seven is still real good. Seattle showed it could score and could get the ball moving on the ground last week, so yes. I will pick the Seahawks. If they can't win by 10 this week...oh what do I care. Just win. Don't make me break out the two solutions post.

ATLANTA (-5.5) over Kansas City

The Chiefs looked hilariously bad against Oakland. Not a good sign. I'm taking Matt Ryan at home, where he lit up the Lions in week 1. At least he's playing well against bad teams, right?

Arizona (+3) over WASHINGTON

Maybe I just really like cherry Kool-aide, but I'm liking the Cardinals in the early going. The problem of this team the last few years is they lost games they should win. Well, they're 2-0 against teams they SHOULD beat this year. They shouldn't beat the Redskins, but given their offense I can see them keeping it real close. And no, I wouldn't be shocked if they won out right.

TENNESSEE (-4.5) over Houston

The people of Nashville are going crazy over the pick of Kerry Collins to be the qb. I just made myself cringe.

BUFFALO (-9) over Oakland

You don't think the Raiders can make it two in a row on the road do you? Didn't think so.

Tampa Bay (+1) over CHICAGO

Kyle Orton, like the market, is due for a correction. 

MINNESOTA (-3.5) over Carolina

The Vikings have to wake up sometime. There's to much talent on that team. And now that they have a legit qb, this is the week.

NEW YORK GIANTS (-13.5) over Cincinnati

I think it'll be another good week to own Plax in fantasy football.

Miami (+13.5) over NEW ENGLAND

1. Matt Cassell

2. Huge spread

3 ???

4. PROFIT

Nope, I don't see it. I won't be surprised if the Patriots win by two touchdowns, but I'm taking the wait and see approach to this.

DENVER (-5.5) over New Orleans

And they'll win without the refs or needing to go for two.

Detroit (+4) over SAN FRANCISCO

I actually think the 49ers will win, but I don't look at their defense as being one to provide much of a cushion for victory.

BALTIMORE (-2) over Cleveland

I'm looking forward to watching Joe Flacco. I am not excited to watch Derek Anderson come crashing back to Earth.

Wait, let me check again. Good.

PHILADELPHIA (-3.5) over Pittsburgh

I'm just saying, if the Steelers are really the favorite in the AFC, as some have them pegged, congrats to whatever NFC team makes the Super Bowl. Granted, early season predictions mean little, but did you see what would should be a good Pittsburgh offense do against Cleveland? Even with the conditions, it was uninspiring at best.

Jacksonville (+5) over INDIANAPOLIS

I think the Jags can keep it close on the road, and Peyton still hasn't found his rhythm.

Dallas over GREEN BAY (+2.5)

Dallas certainly looked for real on Monday night. I enjoyed that game. And I'll be honest here, people knock Tony Romo and Peter King's comment that he smiles all the time, but if you didn't enjoy his post game interview you don't enjoy football. When asked how he didn't let his brutal fumble affect him he laughed and said, "Because if I did, I would suck!" That's 80 times better than the typical "You have to block those out and move on, its part of the game, blah blah blah." Don't tell the Rog, but personalities in the league are good.

SAN DIEGO (-9) over New York Jets

You think the Chargers are going to me a bit mad and a bit eager to prove a point on Monday? Norv Turner should just tell his team to imagine 11 Ed Hocculi's lining up against them and watch the barrage.

Enjoy the games and happy betting!

Alan