Super Bowl Preview Part 2: The Rhythm is Gonna Getcha... To the Red Zone...

What you do once you're there will determine whether you win the game.

In part 1 of my Super Bowl preview I tried to make the case that Seattle should be able to move the ball offensively and score on the stellar Pittsburgh defense. Mind you, I am not suggesting that the Seahawks will run roughshod but merely that the team is equipped with the balance, skill, and blocking necessary to meet with success against Pittsburgh's 3-4 blitz-heavy scheme.

In part 2 I want to turn my attention to the other major facet of the game from Seattle's perspective: defense.

What must Seattle do to slow down the white hot Pittsburgh offense? Well, it's complicated. Pittsburgh's second year starting QB Ben Roethlisberger is currently making like Dan Marino. He's not just on a hot streak. He's in that zen-like place where he seems in complete control of the offense; where the defense just seems like it's a beat too slow. [Cue soundtrack by N. Carlos Nakai] His mind and his spirit are as one. [Slowly fade music... and cut.] Pittsburgh's offensive coordinator seems to have finally been able to put into practice what all good offensive coordinators know: points come from the passing game but the running game needs to be good in short yardage/goal line, it must provide offensive balance, and must help manage the clock. Check. Check. Check and check. So let me state right up front that I think Pittsburgh is going to score. I'd be stunned to the point of near coronary to see Seattle dominate the way they did against Carolina. Actually, I expect a high scoring game (mid-high 20s) from both teams.

So, when a defense faces an offense that is not "shut-downable," an offense that is going to get its points unless everyone mysteriously comes down with food poisoning, there are two keys to keeping the offense from running wild; one philosophical and one tactical.

The philosophical key is to disrupt rhythm and timing in the passing game. Most teams favor a particular approach. Pittsburgh and Philadelphia try to overwhelm protection schemes with exotic blitzes and overloads. By contrast, Tampa and Chicago try to get their hyperathletic front four spread out and force linemen to block in space with little help. The Giants and Carolina simply defy you to block them. However, the key to Seattle's defensive resurgence, in my opinion, has been its promiscuity. John Marshall and Ray Rhodes don't seem wed to any one approach. Of course, Seattle's constants this season have been outstanding play by the front four and linebackers. But, Marshall and Rhodes make week-to-week adjustments featuring different approaches to different offenses. For instance, Seattle does not blitz often, but will blitz based on matchups and situations (as they did at Philadelphia and at San Francisco--where it worked well until they went away from it and let the Niners back in the game). So offenses don't know exactly how the defense will approach it in a given week. The best example was the one week change between the divisional round and the conference title game. In the divisional round against Santana Moss (who is the "economy" version of Steve Smith, the one with fewer standard features and no sun roof) Seattle gave the corners help but also mixed in far more man coverage. Their one week adjustment to Smith, described by some as a sort of roving "box and 1," was really rather innovative. I'm sure Carolina did not anticipate such a substantial change in approach between similar single-receiver dominated offenses in one week. (Of course had Sir William of Foxborough or Sir Tuna of Dallas devised a scheme that practically shut out the NFL's best wide receiver--one who had consistently beaten double- and triple-coverage all season--we'd all still be marveling at its understated genius. But I'm not bitter; not bitter at all.) My point is that when facing an offense firing on all cylinders, playing behind a good offensive line, it's imperative that you be able to show more than one look. Even if the quarterback is unflappable you may be able to throw something else off kilter just enough to make a play.

The tactical key is playing well in high leverage situations, particularly on third down and in the red zone. I expect Seattle to play conservatively on defense; lots of zone to guard against the big play, leaving the front four to play the run, mixing in a little blitz. On the season Seattle was pedestrian in third down conversions, 16th overall (Pittsburgh was 20th), but the more compelling data come from drive stats. Overall, Seattle allowed roughly 65% of opponents' offensive series to result in a first down or touchdown (discarding end of half/game kneel downs), good for 12th in the league (Pittsburgh ranked 11th at 64%). Drive stats are not adjusted for opponent or situation but they appear to tell a consistent story about Seattle. Defensively, Seattle will sacrifice yards to protect its mediocre secondary between the 20s. But in the red zone, where secondary play matters less (everyone plays zone) and the emphasis shifts to the front seven, they are among the league's best. Pittsburgh's offense is certainly good in the red zone (if not quite in the same league as Seattle). Of their 56 trips to the red zone roughly 61% ended in touchdowns (about 38% ended in field goal attempts). Yet, the Seahawks allow only 40.4% of opponents' red zone trips to end in a touchdown (second only to Chicago). For Seattle's defense the game hinges on keeping the ball in front of them. It'd be fantastic if they could force Roethlisberger into an uncharacteristic mistake but that has not been a real strength this season so it's not something I would count on. More realistically, Seattle must force Pittsburgh to settle for field goal attempts and keep them out of the end zone. All things considered, Seattle seems well equipped to do just that.

Up next: Special teams and prediction (Friday)