A Panther in Sheep's Clothing?

Seahawks/Panthers Preview
by David Crockett

Like Facing Mike Martz... with Common Sense

So much good stuff has appeared on the 'net about this matchup in the past few days that I wasn't going to write anything for this game. But, I was recently struck by a mini-epiphany. One little piece of insight has made me feel a lot less anxious about this matchup despite Steve Smith going all Vince Young on Chicago last week. An interesting irony, which could only be meaningful to true Seattle fans, is that Carolina's offense shares some pretty intriguing similarities to St. Louis's.

I am well aware that you wouldn't normally put Dan Henning's run-oriented offense in the same room with the current incarnation of "The Greatest Show on Turf," but they do actually share some basic principles in the passing game. I've seen a lot of Panther football this season and I'm telling you the offenses share a lot in common—dammit. Of course it's much easier to spot their differences. St. Louis has more depth at receiver (e.g., Holt, Bruce, Curtis, and McDonald) while Carolina has Steve Smith and a bunch of guys from the UNC-Charlotte intramural flag football championship team. Carolina is committed philosophically to the run while St. Louis avoids it like the plague. But, the Panthers don't run the ball very well so they end up throwing it a lot anyway. So let's concentrate on similarities in their respective passing games.

Offensive coordinator Dan Henning, like Mike Martz, loves to soften up an aggressive defense with quick throws using a wide variety of screens to receivers, backs, and even tight ends. When looking for big chunks of yards Henning and Martz share an affinity for the deep crossing route. What's more they love to throw downfield out of max protection blocking schemes that utilize a tight end as an extra tackle (John Mangum and Brandon Manumaleuna) and out of two receiver formations (Tory Holt plays an almost identical role to Steve Smith in this regard but Carolina lacks a player the caliber of Isaac Bruce to play opposite). Even further, Carolina and St. Louis ask mediocre offensive lines to hold blocks so that their quarterback can throw downfield. Consequently, both offenses play in peaks and valleys with huge swings in performance—sometimes even from one quarter to the next.

On the season the two offenses were quite similar using Football Outsider's defense adjusted value over average (DVOA) statistic. Carolina was slightly better (17th) than St. Louis (20th) overall and in the passing game (11th vs. 19th). However, given that St. Louis actually had the better rushing offense it's reasonable to attribute a good chunk of the overall difference in offense between the two teams to the passing game (i.e., Steve Smith). So even though this only reinforces Smith's importance in this matchup (like we haven't heard enough of that already) we know we have the pieces defensively to limit this offense.

How do we know this? Two things became clear in week 10 that finally allowed Seattle to get over the St. Louis hump, and both are relevant to this game. (Remember, we could always score on St. Louis; we could never get the big stop.) First, we developed a consistent pass rush with the front four, which provided some help for the cornerbacks and allowed us to save the blitz for use in key situations. Second, importing more athletic LBs allowed them to take deeper drops on the crossing routes making them more difficult throws. What's more, the LBs and defensive linemen also recover well when the ball is dumped underneath. The athleticism on defense really shows versus years past. St. Louis still has some success with the deep crossing route but they used to be able to get that play absolutely any time they wanted. Now, they can't make a living off it. They may hit one but they may well give up a sack, even in max protection because our guys really get off the ball. What we found out that day is that we're better in the trenches, where the game is won, on both sides of the ball.

Of course on Sunday Seattle will be playing against Carolina's offensive line, not St. Louis's. Still, I like our chances. Football Outsiders ranks Carolina's line 11th in adjusted sack rate, almost statistically identical to Seattle's (9th). But that's where having seen Carolina really helps. Seattle may leave in a back to help on the blitz but otherwise the offensive line gets little help. Dan Henning, like Martz, helps his tackles with backs, tight ends, rollouts, and quick throws. If you really look closely, and ignore the macho bluster uttered by TV analysts, you'll see a good bit of Mike Martz on that opposing sideline (only with more common sense). I expect Henning to look to put points on the board via the passing game and play from out front rather than run clock. He will look to run the ball in specific situations; draws and reverses to keep the defense honest and power runs in short yardage or to sit on a lead.

I fully anticipate a high scoring game. But as it plays on, much like we found out in week 10, we'll see that we're better up front on both side of the ball. That, I believe, will be the difference.