Super Bowl Preview Part 1: "We Want the Ball and We're Gonna Score!"

Funny how the words I once thought were destined to live as part of that curse, that cloud, that indefinable hazy fog that has hung over this franchise almost since its first day don't sting nearly as much as they once did.

I never faulted Hasselbeck for his impromptu remark after the overtime coin toss in Green Bay (and I'm still uncertain whether Alex Bannister was supposed to break off his route on the play). Looking back on it now (after-the-fact rationalization though this may be) it seems like that moment was necessary for Hasselbeck and the team to grow.

Nothing teaches you about the perils of taking things for granted like being humbled in front of everyone. But gaining the maturity to fight back and finally play to your potential; that's what ultimately breaks the curse (or lifts the fog in Seattle's case). Fighting through the Green Bay disappointment, the three gut-punch losses to St. Louis and Mike Holmgren's almost sanctimonious declaration that "one day this team is going to win one of these games," Seattle has managed to do just that.

Along the way they learned the most valuable lesson of all.

The difference between winning and "almost winning" is not all about doing something great. It's about being great at what you do; executing each assignment as well as it can be executed.

Note how Seattle's receivers are now making the routine catch, and how as a consequence Seattle leads the NFL in long drives. Scroll down in this very blog to the still shots of Walter Jones's "Escalade" block on Mike Rucker in the NFC title game. (Jones pushed the all-pro end down the field like he used to push his Escalade during the offseasons he spent holding out. But it was Ryan Hannem, the backup tight end rather than the all-universe left tackle, who turned in the first playoff Escalade block on Mack Strong's 32-yard skamper a week earlier in the divisional round.)

The Seahawks will have few plays make any top-10 lists this season (Alexander's 88 yard run vs. Arizona made Chris Berman's list on ESPN). Yet the Seahawks have been great this year because everyone has made the plays they are supposed to make. Now they are one step away from reaching the pinnacle of the football world.

So how can they take the final step?

When Seattle has the ball it will take not only a great game plan but the right mix of bravado and humility to move the ball and score; because in case you were unaware gentle reader, this Pittsburgh defense is pretty damn good. As always, it starts with the front seven (and oftentimes eight).

Though many analysts begin discussion of Pittsburgh's defense with its blitz happy linebackers and safety the key to it all is its round mound of shut-down nosetackle, Casey Hampton. His main tasks are to shut down the inside run and keep offensive lineman away from Messrs. James Farrior and Larry Foote, the inside linebackers. He excels at both.

To wit, according to defensive line rankings at Football Outsiders.com the Steelers are fourth in defensive adjusted line yards (ALY) for the regular season (ALY is average yards yielded on running plays attributable to the defensive line, adjusted for a number of factors). Further, the Steelers are particularly stingy with rushing yards between the tackles…

But wait! There's more!

The Steelers are even tougher on the run in the guard/center gaps. Well, that thar's Casey Hampton territory folks. In fact, for all the talk of Pittsburgh's sideline to sideline speed they were decidedly middle-of-the-pack in defending runs around either edge during the season. You may be thinking, like I was, that this may be because they give up an occasional average-inflating big play on an end around, or got caught with an off-tackle run in a blitz. Well, you'd be as wrong as I was.

The Steelers were good in all facets of run defense, but best (5th) at preventing long runs (10+ yards). Incidentally, they were 6th at shutting down short yardage/goal line runs, and 6th> at stuffing the run on first and second down. So the Steelers are very good in all facets of run defense; all except on runs aimed at the edges. That appears to be a legitimate weakness. My suspicion is that Pittsburgh's outstanding tandem of outside linebackers, Clark Hagans and Joey Porter, are asked to do a lot, and taking on tackles at the line of scrimmage is the one part of their game that is less than outstanding.

So how can the Seahawks take the ball and score in this game?

Well, in many ways the Dallas game is instructive but not as the cautionary tale it's been portrayed to be in the press. Against Dallas, knowing that Hasselbeck simply could not be in synch on blitz reads without starters Darryl Jackson and Bobby Engram, Holmgren kept his offensive game plan plain vanilla, in a cup, no sprinkles, no swirl. Yet he managed to maintain real balance in his play calling. What I mean by balance here goes beyond simple run-pass ratios. It's more akin to a pitcher in baseball who knows he doesn't have his best stuff that day but who is still willing to throw any pitch on any count to keep the batter offstride.

Bill Parcells tried like heck to entice Holmgren to abandon his balanced approach, daring him to force the ball deep by stacking nine in the box. Yet Holmgren stayed balanced, stuck with the run and the short/intermediate passing game, and eventually wore the Cowboys defense down. That's when he attacked them deep, marching down the field for the game tying score.

Now that Jackson and Engram are healthy Holmgren must avoid the same enticement to abandon his balance, taking shot after shot downfield--in short, he must avoid the Peyton Manning Fallacy. That may involve taking some three and outs. Taking a sack but avoiding the costly mistake. That's the humility part. Now for the bravado.

Many have focused on the Monday night matchup in Indianapolis as a case study in beating Dick LeBeau's defense. I disagree. That game, to use a basketball analogy, was mostly a case of Indy just getting hot from 3pt range early. Indy actually did little damage after their first quarter outburst. Rather, the most instructive games for scoring on Pittsburgh's defense were its regular season matchups against the Bengals.

In both games the Bengals moved the ball and were able to consistently put together long drives. In the first game Pittsburgh forced turnovers. The Steelers intercepted Carson Palmer in consecutive 2nd half possessions, and turned those into points, in what was Palmer's worst game of the year. Yet despite dominating 2nd half time of possession (the world's most misused "stat") Pittsburgh outgained Cincinnati by a mere two net yards (304 to 302) and both teams had an identical 20 first downs.

In the second game it was Pittsburgh committing rather than forcing the drive killing turnovers, though otherwise their offense was scary good. Still, Cincinnati's offensive output was remarkably consistent with the first game (324 net yards, 21 first downs). Their second half long scoring drives included nine plays for 51 yards (FG) and six plays for 49 yards (TD), with another short TD following a long kickoff return. They stayed balanced and they stretched Pittsburgh's defense up, down, and across the field. No Bengals player had more than 5 catches and only Houshmenzadeh had an especially long reception (43 yards). Rudi Johnson had 98 yards on 21 carries, many of which were accumulated in the fourth quarter.

Interestingly, in an early season loss to New England the same pattern was evident. The Patriots were exceptionally balanced, moving the ball at will almost. It was three turnovers (a pick and two fumbles as I recall) that kept Pittsburgh in the game.

The drive stats at Football Outsiders make it pretty clear that putting together successful drives (i.e., percent of series with first downs and/or touchdowns) is Seattle's specialty; they were second only to Indy while Cincinnati was a close third. Pittsburgh's defense is very good—but not fantastic as shutting down drives. Pittsburgh is exceptional at keeping offenses out of the end zone (5th) and at forcing fumbles (9th). But, Cincinnati and New England showed that a team with balance can move the ball on Pittsburgh consistently and score if they can avoid the killer turnover.

Those teams, unlike Indy on that Monday night, did it largely with balance, patience, and without the superhuman highlight play. The key appears to be making Pittsburgh defend the entire field.

Up next: Seattle's defense and special teams