Monday, February 21, 2005

Cap casualties could include big names - ESPN Insider

Copped from STL Today Boards. Printworthy, interesting for thunder bowl reading.

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Cap casualties could include big names

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Scouts Inc.

On Feb. 22, NFL teams can begin releasing players in advance of the free-agent signing period, which begins March 2. Veteran quarterbacks Drew Bledsoe and Jeff Garcia already have been told of their impending release.

Who else has their contract on the chopping block? Our scouts have examined every roster and compared on-field performance with salary and contract status to come up with an extensive list of veterans still under contract who nevertheless could find themselves out of work this offseason. At the very least, some of these players will be candidates for contract restructuring.

Some of the players on the list might surprise you. Would you believe Marshall Faulk? What about Jerome Bettis? Check out the rest of the list:


| Offense |

Quarterbacks

Steve McNair, Tennessee
He is due $7.5 million in 2005 and an astronomical $50 million bonus in 2006 on a backloaded contract. Durability is a big concern, and those numbers will be restrictive for the Titans even if McNair does stay on the field. McNair has said he's willing to restructure his contract, but he hasn't said definitively whether he plans to return next season.

Aaron Brooks, New Orleans
Coach Jim Haslett's reprieve in New Orleans might have saved Brooks. He is a great talent who doesn't play with a sense of urgency. The Saints might ask him to redo a deal that will pay him $5.5 million in 2005.

Jake Plummer, Denver
It isn't a lock the Broncos will pay the $6 million roster bonus he is due March 1. Plummer's salary isn't out of whack, but the organization could go another direction after an up-and-down season.

Drew Bledsoe, Buffalo
The Bills already have announced they will release Bledsoe and elevate second-year QB J.P. Losman to the starting job.

Rich Gannon, Oakland
There is almost no chance he will return. He has a huge, $8 million base salary in 2005 and is not a good fit in coach Norv Turner's offense or on this club.

Brad Johnson, Tampa Bay
Unless he takes a dramatic pay cut, he won't return to a roster that is pretty well set at quarterback. A salary of $6 million in 2005 and $7 million in '06 is outlandish for a 37-year-old third-stringer.

Jay Fiedler, Miami
Neither Fiedler nor A.J. Feeley appears to be the long-term answer at quarterback for Miami. Fiedler is too pricey (more than $5.7 million in 2005) for a backup, and his biggest supporter (Dave Wannstedt) is gone.

Brian Griese, Tampa Bay
He carries a $2 million salary figure for 2005, but also is due a $6 million bonus in March. Griese isn't likely to see that money, but he played well enough in 2004 to earn a restructured deal.

Rodney Peete, Carolina
He gives the coaching staff a level of comfort, but he isn't worth $1 million annually at his age. Peete could renegotiate and return for a year, but the Panthers need to start developing a young backup.

Chris Weinke, Carolina
At 32, he is no better than a journeyman backup and no longer can be considered a developmental project. It's unlikely Carolina will pay him the $1.2 million he is due in 2005.


Fullbacks

James Hodgins, Arizona
He was expected to be a force in the run game, but it didn't happen. (He finished the season on injured reserve.) Though Hodgins has great size, all he can do is block, limiting his usefulness in Dennis Green's system.

Mike Anderson, Denver
A severe groin injury hampered him all last season, and he will be a 31-year-old injury risk carrying a $2.16 million base salary in 2005. The Broncos have other options at his position.


Running backs

Marshall Faulk, St. Louis
He is starting to look like a part-time player, with age and durability becoming big concerns. He has a $7 million cap number for 2005, so it might be time for he and the Rams to part company.

Jerome Bettis, Pittsburgh
He is the comeback story of 2004 and is running like a player five years younger than his 33 years. Turning him loose will be a tough call for this organization, but Bettis is due more than $5 million in 2005.

Michael Bennett, Minnesota
Though not a candidate to get cut, he very well could be traded. The Vikings are loaded at running back, prefer to build through the draft and could net a fairly high draft choice for him.


Tight end

Kyle Brady, Jacksonville
At age 33, he still is a physical and effective run blocker, but he offers little as a receiver. With more teams using offensive tackles as (bleep)-yardage blocking tight ends, can Jacksonville live with Brady's cap number (almost $3 million)?

Dwayne Carswell, Denver
He has been serviceable, but Denver uses many tight ends, and Carswell hardly is dominant. The Broncos could go younger and cheaper in a committee approach.

Jay Riemersma, Pittsburgh
He is 32, comes with endless durability questions and isn't the blocking tight end Pittsburgh wants. We can't see the Steelers paying him $1.3 million in 2005.


Wide receiver

Derrick Mason, Tennessee
His name seems to be on this list every year, but he always dodges the bullet. But Mason's $3.2 million base salary and $1.5 million in incentives for 2005 might be too much for the cap-strapped Titans to handle this time.

Rod Smith, Denver
He could see his skills start to decline soon, and his salary will be in the $5 million range in 2005. But he is Denver's most consistent weapon, and the Broncos don't have a replacement ready.

Isaac Bruce, St. Louis
St. Louis has good, young depth at receiver, and Bruce's salary over the next four years (from $4 million to $7 million) isn't a drop in the bucket. The Rams might have to let a good player go before he becomes a liability.

Kevin Johnson, Baltimore
Once a solid No. 1 receiver, he has been no better than a No. 3 for the Ravens, who need an upgrade. His base salary of $1.4 million and potential bonus of over $2 million is too much. Do you renegotiate or cut a 29-year-old backup? Johnson might do the Ravens a favor by opting out of his contract in favor of free agency.

Koren Robinson, Seattle
His off-field problems and favorable salary make him a strong trade candidate. The Seahawks are turned off by his act and dropped passes.

Troy Brown, New England
He is the ultimate team guy, but he is 34, his production on offense is in steep decline and his cap number is around $5.7 million. Coach Bill Belichick doesn't play favorites.

Muhsin Muhammad, Carolina
Carolina almost dumped him a year ago but wisely chose not to. Due a huge $10 million bonus in the offseason, he likely will renegotiate and receive a more cap-friendly deal.

Jerome Pathon, New Orleans
The Saints aren't known as big spenders, and a $3.25 million salary for a quality No. 3 receiver probably is too much. But he is a tough matchup in the slot, so the team might try to restructure his deal.

David Terrell, Chicago
The ultimate teaser, he never has lived up to great expectations. He no longer can be considered a developing talent, and the Bears' offense desperately needs a playmaker.

Az-Zahir Hakim, Detroit
With Charles Rogers and Roy Williams making a lot of money, the position is financially out of whack. Hakim, the No. 3 receiver, has a $4 million cap number in 2005.

Derrius Thompson, Miami
He has the size and skills but never has played up to expectations. The Dolphins have a new coaching staff, loads of needs and won't want to pay $1.2 million for a No. 3 receiver.


Center

Jeff Mitchell, Carolina
One of the most underrated players in the league, he rarely makes a mistake. The Panthers want to keep him, but his $2 million salary and $1 million bonus are steep. He could be a candidate for renegotiation.

Trey Teague, Buffalo
The Bills would like to upgrade the position in free agency or the draft. They are not likely to keep Teague, who is scheduled to make a $1.25 million base salary and is due a $1 million bonus in training camp.

Jeff Hartings, Pittsburgh
He still is a good player, but at age 32 he is starting to slip. With a $4.2 million base salary, he could renegotiate and get another year or two out of his career.

Mike Wahle, Green Bay
He is due a $5 million salary and $6 million roster bonus in 2005. The Packers likely will try to bring him back at a more cap-friendly cost, but Wahle could be released if he balks.


Offensive guard

Ruben Brown, Chicago
His 2005 salary ($1.265 million) is acceptable, but he has lived on reputation the last few years and the Bears probably want to get younger on the offensive line.

Larry Allen, Dallas
The Cowboys would like to save some money and get younger at this position. Allen's base salary of $4.5 million in 2005 could lead to him restructuring or testing the open market.

Ron Stone, Oakland
He had a subpar, injury-marred 2004 season and at 34 is a shell of the player he was a few yeas ago. Due $2.6 million in base salary and incentives in 2005, he isn't likely to return to Oakland.

Rex Tucker, Chicago
He is tough, but his body has taken a beating. The $2 million Tucker is owed for 2005 is a steep cost for a guy who isn't likely to give you 16 games.

Doug Brzezinski, Carolina
A journeyman backup who has limited range and athletic ability. The Panthers want to rebuild their offensive line with younger players, and his $1.5 million salary in 2005 is reason enough to look for help elsewhere.

Mo Collins, Oakland
The Raiders seem committed to Collins in the (bleep) term, but his base salary and incentives in 2005 exceed $6 million. The cost is steep, but starting over at quarterback could ruin any progress that has been made.

Frank Middleton, Oakland
Coming off an injury-marred season and possibly breaking down physically, he is due $3 million in base salary and incentives next season. It's unlikely he will be back.


Offensive tackle

Chris Samuels, Washington
A tremendous talent, he has been an up-and-down performer whose pay is commensurate with a much more consistent player. His 2005 cap number is more than $9 million. Will the team try to renegotiate?

Kyle Turley, St. Louis
Beyond obvious durability issues, his rift with coach Mike Martz seems irreparable. Add to that equation a $3.65 million base salary in 2005, and Turley is likely to be playing for someone else next year.

Jon Runyan, Philadelphia
He no longer is a dominant player, and first-round pick Shawn Andrews is being groomed to replace him. With a $5.5 million base salary, he could be let go by the cap-conscious Eagles.

Brad Hopkins, Tennessee
Tennessee might have to clear out both starting offensive tackles due to salary-cap problems. Hopkins still is a good player, but the Titans probably can't afford his $4.75 million salary for 2005.

Matt Lepsis, Denver
His move from right tackle to the left side was impressive, but with a base salary of $3.5 million and reachable incentives of $1.5 million he is a renegotiation candidate.

Fred Miller, Tennessee
He is part of an overpaid offensive tackle tandem, with $9.1 million in base salary and easily reached incentives due him in 2005. That is too costly for a 32-year-old right tackle.

Scott Gragg, San Francisco
At 33, he has a lot of wear and tear on his body and is starting to slow down. The 49ers have severe salary-cap problems and need to get younger. Dumping his 2005 salary ($3 million) seems a likely part of the solution.

L.J. Shelton, Arizona
Overrated athletic ability and nagging injuries make him a target in the Cardinals' housecleaning. He was placed on injured reserve during the season, and the coaching staff has no confidence in him.

Anthony Clement, Arizona
He's getting almost $2.5 million to be a backup. Dennis Green wasn't happy with the play of the offensive line, so big changes are in store.


| Defense |

The NFL's offseason moratorium on roster moves comes to an end on Feb 22, a week before the free-agent signing period begins. While players scheduled to become free agents have been making plans for weeks, there is another large group of players who could be facing uncertain futures, as well.

Our scouts have examined every roster and compared on-field performance with salary and contract status to come up with an extensive list of veterans whose contracts are candidates for the chopping block. Would you believe Warren Sapp? Michael Strahan? What about Willie McGinest?


Defensive end

Michael Strahan, N.Y. Giants
Strahan is 33, has clashed with coach Tom Coughlin, and his durability is a concern. With a $5.5 million base salary in 2005, he might force the organization's hand if he balks at a restructured deal.

Trevor Pryce, Denver
The bad back that wiped out his 2004 season draws his durability into question. Pryce's salary over the next four years (from $6.5 to $9 million) is a lot of money to devote to an injury risk. If the Broncos aren't able to trade him, his contract could be restructured.

Kevin Carter, Tennessee
His versatility is valued, but he has a lot of mileage on his body and doesn't make enough plays. With a base salary of $6.75 million and another $2 million in possible incentives for 2005, he likely will be asked to renegotiate or hit the road.

Warren Sapp, Oakland
He never looked comfortable and was pushed around too much in Oakland's 3-4 scheme. He is 32 and no longer a dominant player, and his salary and incentives could add up to $4.5 million in 2005. But he might return if the Raiders go to a 4-3.

Courtney Brown, Cleveland
A huge disappointment. His salary over the next two years totals more than $13 million, and he plays only half the time. It might be time to cut the cord.

Marcellus Wiley, Dallas
An underachiever in San Diego and now Dallas, he is owed more than $10 million over the next three years. That's a lot of money for a guy who makes very few plays.

Vonnie Holliday, Kansas City
He hasn't lived up to expectations and, nearing 30, could start slowing down anytime. His base of $2.2 million is manageable, but bonuses of $5.225 million are exorbitant. He will either renegotiate or be gone.

John Parrella, Oakland
His playing time is down, and age and injuries have become a factor. Parrella's cap number is around $4 million, a lot of money for an aging part-time player on a club trying to get younger.

Travis Hall, Atlanta
A 33-year-old backup due a $3 million base salary and $1 million bonus in March. He still is an effective run stopper and character guy, but he might have to take a dramatic pay cut to return.

Kenny Mixon, Minnesota
The Vikings like their young guys at this position, and Mixon is due $3.8 million in 2005. It would be surprising to see a player who posted only 2.5 sacks last season return at anything other than a greatly reduced price.

Antonio Cochran, Seattle
He played fairly well in 2004 (he finished with 6.5 sacks), but a $2 million salary for next season probably is too steep for a role player on a team with many free agents.

Jay Williams, Miami
He is a 33-year-old backup set to make $900,000 in 2005, with an additional bonus of $400,000 due in March. Miami has an aging defense and wants to get younger.


Defensive tackle

La'Roi Glover, Dallas
Though still a good player, he is 31 and due $4 million in base and bonuses. Glover will be a poor fit if the Cowboys, contemplating an overhaul of the defense, switch from a 4-3 to 3-4 scheme.

Sam Adams, Buffalo
He still is an excellent two-gap run stuffer, but his age and conditioning are serious concerns. Because defensive tackle Pat Williams is a free agent, Buffalo might bring Adams back despite a salary that could put him in the range of $2.5 million next season.

Dan Wilkinson, Detroit
He has settled in nicely with the Lions and benefits from playing next to Shaun Rogers. But $2.125 million for a 32-year-old journeyman might be too much.

Gerard Warren, Cleveland
The new regime in Cleveland might revamp the defensive line and let go of this classic underachiever. Warren already has redone his contract once, and he still is overpaid for his production.

Bryant Young, San Francisco
He is an old 33, with many durability issues on a team in salary-cap hell. Young is an important leader on this club, but the 49ers might not be able to pay him the $2.25 million he is due in 2005.

Lional Dalton, Kansas City
He is a journeyman who doesn't make many big plays and won't improve enough to merit a $1.2 million base salary for 2005.

Brandon Noble, Washington
He is a tough, hardnosed overachiever, but at age 32 his body isn't holding up well. His $1.5 million in 2005 is too much for a backup. Noble could wind up renegotiating.


Inside linebacker

Mike Barrow, Washington
At 35 and due $1.74 million in 2005, he could get his deal redone and stick around another season.

Sam Cowart, N.Y. Jets
His production has tailed off, and he now is a backup behind Jonathan Vilma. He won't reclaim the starting job, and the Jets have little use for a 30-year-old backup who will make more than $3 million in 2005.

Roman Phifer, New England
A solid backup and team guy, but at 37 he is on the way down. His base salary ($800,000) is acceptable, but he is due a $1.2 million bonus that could force the team to tweak his contract.

Orlando Ruff, New Orleans
He is a two-down run defender whose pass-defense skills are limited. The Saints' movement to get younger and more athletic coupled with his $1.1 million salary make Ruff a candidate for release or renegotiation.

Ted Johnson, New England
At age 32 and with a history of injuries, he isn't likely to stick around while making $1.7 million in 2005. He still can contribute as a run stopper on first and second downs. Near the end of his career, he might consider a re-done deal.


Outside linebacker

Derrick Brooks, Tampa Bay
He isn't getting any younger, and he already has restructured his contract once, at a 2005 salary figure ($6 million) that might be difficult for the Buccaneers to swallow.

Chad Brown, Seattle
He still is a decent player at age 35, but his skills are in decline, he can't stay healthy, and he carries a cap number of more than $5 million in 2005. Seattle can't afford that kind of uncertainty.

Nate Wayne, Philadelphia
Hardly the playmaker the Eagles thought they were getting, he isn't physical against the run and doesn't have a well-defined role in the future of the franchise.

Peter Boulware, Baltimore
Injuries claimed his entire 2004 season, and he might be starting to fall apart physically. He still can produce as a 3-4 rush linebacker when healthy, but he isn't worth the risk at $6 million.

Dexter Coakley, Dallas
In a potential overhaul of the defense, the Cowboys likely would get bigger and more physical. Coakley is 32 and due $3.8 million in base salary and bonuses in 2005.

Junior Seau, Miami
After finishing the year on injured reserve, he might opt to retire. With $4 million due in salary and bonuses in 2005, Seau simply is too expensive a luxury for this team.

Willie McGinest, New England
He still is a versatile impact player, but $9 million is a lot to pay for a 33-year-old on this team. Coach Bill Belichick likes him, so McGinest could come back with a restructured contract.

Kevin Hardy, Cincinnati
He came to Cincinnati as a savior at middle linebacker, but he failed there and hasn't looked much better outside. Hardy's agility and range are declining, making his $2.6 million salary a risk not worth taking.

Ray Thompson, Arizona
Undersized and oft-injured, he makes too much money for a reserve and is an off-field risk. Thompson faces a likely one-year suspension if he violates league rules again.

Travian Smith, Oakland
A terrific athlete who never has lived up to his potential, he is a backup who will make $2 million in 2005. Knowing he won't get any better, paying him that well makes no sense.


Cornerback

Samari Rolle, Tennessee
Injuries have become a huge concern for this still-solid player. A $5.5 million base salary for 2005 makes him a luxury the Titans can't afford.

Patrick Surtain, Miami
Surtain has a big cap number, and the Dolphins want to get younger at cornerback. They aren't likely to cut both Surtain and Sam Madison, but they might entertain trade offers.

Sam Madison, Miami
Though still an excellent cover corner, he is 31 and has an $8 million cap number. The Dolphins' new regime might decide to cut ties before his skills start to erode.

Ronde Barber, Tampa Bay
Though he is a Pro Bowl player, he might be a product of Tampa Bay's cover-2 scheme. Moreover, he is scheduled to make more than $4 million in each of the next two years.

Tyrone Poole, New England
After he finished the season on injured reserve, age and durability are significant concerns. He no longer is a shutdown guy, and it's doubtful the Patriots will pay $2.4 million for a No. 2 or No. 3 corner.

Mario Edwards, Tampa Bay
A talented player who doesn't always play up to his potential. He is due $1.6 million in salary and another $1.6 million in offseason bonus money. The Buccaneers probably aren't willing to pay him that much.

Duane Starks, Arizona
Injuries have prevented him from living up to his expected role of shutdown corner. A nickel back probably isn't worth the $3.6 million Starks is due in 2005.

Artrell Hawkins, Carolina
Though he has decent cover skills, he gives up too many big plays and isn't very disciplined. Hawkins' $1.8 million salary figure for 2005 is high for a backup whose contributions are limited.

Donnie Abraham, N.Y. Jets
He gets by as a starter, but he lacks great cover skills and isn't getting any better at age 31. His 2005 salary of $1.5 million might be too hefty for a cap-challenged club.

Aaron Glenn, Houston
He still has value at age 33, but his cover skills are in decline. Glenn probably can play another year or two at a relatively high level, but he won't live up to a $4 million annual salary.

Juran Bolden, Jacksonville
Set to make almost $2 million in base and incentives in 2005, he is a 31-year-old backup who has been a huge disappointment. The Jaguars want younger and faster cover guys.

Chad Scott, Pittsburgh
He will turn 31 before next season and his body is starting to break down. Pittsburgh is unlikely to pay him the $3.885 million he is scheduled to receive in 2005.

Corey Fuller, Baltimore
A good team guy, but at 34 his skills are eroding. It's unlikely the speed- and athleticism-conscious Ravens will pay his $1.25 million salary in 2005.

Ken Irvin, Minnesota
At 33 and having spent most of last season on injured reserve, how much could he have left? The money-conscious Vikings will take a long look at trimming his $1.5 million salary from the books.

R.W. McQuarters, Chicago
A decent player, but he might be starting to break down and isn't good enough to be earning $3 million-plus in 2005. Chicago has decent young talent at the position and could threaten to cut McQuarters if he doesn't restructure.


Safety

Shaun Williams, N.Y. Giants
He is coming off a major injury and doesn't make as many plays as he did early in his career. New York has a lot of needs and seems unlikely to pay him the $4 million he's slated to receive in 2005.

Lance Schulters, Tennessee
He has been nicked up and hasn't been the impact player the Titans thought he would be. Schulters' $2.75 million base salary is a real stretch for this team.

John Lynch, Denver
He has given the defense a tougher identity, but at age 33, Lynch has a lot of wear and tear on his body. The Broncos could go younger or pay $2.5 million for a one-dimensional player.

Reggie Tongue, N.Y. Jets
He still is a big hitter, but the Jets are looking for defensive backs with better coverage skills. At 31, with a $700,000 base salary and $400,000 bonus due, Tongue is a target for roster trimming.

Brian Walker, Detroit
An intimidating run stuffer who has limited pass coverage skills, he is 33 and starting to lose what speed he has. His $1.6 million cap figure for 2005 doesn't match what he brings to the table.

Pierson Prioleau, Buffalo
A relatively unproductive backup, he is due $1.25 million in 2005. The Bills want more speed and athletic ability at the position, and will look for an upgrade.

Arturo Freeman, Miami
He is a starter, but he doesn't make enough plays to justify his $3 million salary. Freeman is better suited to be a (more moderately priced) No. 3 safety.

Scouts, Inc. watches games, breaks down film and studies football from all angles for ESPN Insider.

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