Around the world of NFL analysts and sports writers right now, there is a preposterous consensus that deems the 9-2, NFC leading, West division crushing, steamrollering Seahawks as 'lucky'.At first glance, this would seem to be the case, especially when you consider Sunday's game, in which kicker Jay Feeley missed three straight field goals, any of which would have ended the Seahawks' winning streak and brought them back to the pack of NFC contenders.
But is it really luck that caused Feeley to miss his three chances, while Josh Brown nailed his one and only?
Take this into consideration: In Mike Sando's blog on the Tacoma News Tribune website, he often posts audio clips of his post game interviews and press conferences. Among his collection this week is a low-key interview with Seahawks kicker Josh Brown. In the sound clip, it reveals his un-kicker-like charm, but also sheds some light on the home field advantage Seattle kickers enjoy. They talked about how Feeley is normally a very good kicker, and the probable cause for the missed field goals. I created a partial transcript to help prove my point:
Sando: He kicks high –
Brown: He is a very good kicker, and he’s been stable. I guess tonight just wasn’t his night, and this is not an easy place to kick anyway.
Sando: But no wind today, or anything like that. It looked like it was fairly calm.
Brown: Well, it looks that way, and that’s why the first couple kicks were ground balls on kickoffs, because if you get the ball caught up in the air right there, it’s going to drop just that way. We felt like that today. That’s why you see all those kickoffs on the ground, we’re trying to get them to travel on the ground as far as you can – sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t.
Sando: Is it on that one part of the field?
Brown: Yes, the one part of the field – the wind really swirls in there and it stays high. It’s not necessarily right down on the field. We had to contend with it a tiny bit, more so where I kicked it at the end of the game than where he did. Man, I feel bad. I feel real bad, because this could be costly.
Now, any logical person would say that both kickers had to deal with the conditions, and Brown said himself that it was worse on his end. But the difference? Josh Brown knew about the high, swirling wind on an otherwise still day, and he could compensate. Did Feeley? Not likely. How would he?
And that, my friends, is SKILL, PREPARATION, and HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE.
Mix in the team's DETERMINATION, and you have a win.
Is it LUCK? Not on my blue, hairy ass.
Heres another way to look at the 'luck' factor:
ReplyDeleteSwitch the Seahawks and Giants roles, both during the season, AND how this game played out...
We all know by now how the media would react to this...its not a guess, its a FACT...they would say...'Seahawks cannot win the close game...', while 'the Giants proved their contendership with a huge victory at home'...we all know it...ALL OF US...
9-2 is not luck...if you want luck, go watch the Bears games...all 3 of Feeley's kicks were NOT chipshots...the one the Buccs missed was 29 yards...
Im disappointed in how the media is at this point, as I thought we would definitely get the respect we deserve...but as each week goes by, it just proves our point...
The Seahawks could very well be the first team (of any sport, for that matter) that finally shoves the east coast bias down their throats...
I said at the beginning of the year...I just want it to the point where they KNOW we are good...and I KNOW that they KNOW...and I feel we reached that point after beating the hell out of the Rams
Its funny in a way because these media guys are looking for excuses in each game, and can't find one...
ReplyDeleteThe whole thing is going AGAINST them...they say 'oh they can't beat the Rams'...'Cardinals are better'...'BYE WEEK CURSE'...'can't beat a good team'...'can't get a good win on the road'...'defense is horrible'...'no pass rush'...'reached for Lofa'...
We proved them wrong on every one of them...we swept the Rams, ended the bye week curse beating the hell outta the Cardinals, Lofa is a beast, We lead the league in Sacks, Our defense is a red zone ace, Beat the Cowboys, Falcons, and Giants...ALL contenders, and as for the big win on the road...we had the biggest we could possibly have in this league---beating the Rams in their own stadium after the crap we went through with them last year...I honestly believe, that was the biggest win we could possibly get on the road...that includes the Colts, Broncos, Pats...WHOEVER
Also, the only team we really lost to, was Jacksonville...who most believe were Super Bowl contenders before Leftwich went down...Washington, we got screwed badly, costing us a TD...and our game winning FG hit the upright, and we ultimately lost in overtime... (waiting to hear how lucky Washington was...WAIT I DONT HEAR IT!!!)
Im one for being under the radar...but recognition is valuable to have...i want a reputation of being a dangerous team...and its possible to remain that mysterious team from the Pacific Northwest, and have a reputation at the same time...maintaining our status as under the radar
Sorry I went ranting in this topic, Blue...but I made some great points for those who actually read my posts...or...DONT SKIM
ReplyDeleteOooh did you read that, alba? He's taking the gloves off, man!
ReplyDeletePosted by Bluefoot
I still say luck is fine... this article states the case better than I could, this part in particular
ReplyDelete"Last season, Philadelphia had a seven-game winning streak en route to the Super Bowl. But that was because in Week 6, the Eagles pulled out an overtime win at 3-3 Cleveland.
In 2003, mighty New England needed overtime to beat lowly Houston in late November en route to winning its second straight Super Bowl. And who can forget the Snow Bowl/Tuck Rule luck the Patriots needed to beat Oakland in overtime in the playoffs after the 2001 season? Al Davis sure can't."
So F the chuckleheads who want to qualify every win, I don't care if we luck right through the playoffs and through Detroit.
Although I will agree with this Blue, "SKILL, PREPARATION, and HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE. Mix in the team's DETERMINATION, and you have a win.", but a little luck don't hurt.
Posted by JoSCh
The luck in this game was with the Giants. They were given at least one touchdown they should not have gotten. The team that has the bad calls go against them and still manages to pull off a win against a division leader, that team is just plain GOOD! The Giants are a good team. How many other teams could beat the Giants after spotting them a touchdown or two?
ReplyDeleteDuring the telecast, everyone kept talking about the Giants big game next week against Dallas. Guess what? Well, now the 'Hawks have beaten BOTH of them.
At some point, probably just before the Superbowl, all the achievements of the Seahawks this year will be remembered. The naysayers will all start talking about how dangerous the Seahawks are, how determined they are, etc. Now me, I would be embarassed to have to make such a 180 change in attitude. I'd feel a bit of a hypocrite, and a bit chagrined. But I guess that's why I'm not a sports commentator.
Posted by highwatermark
Float like a butterfly...sting like adp! ;)
ReplyDeleteMan, this is some good and spirited discussion. I can't wait until ADP weighs in with his thoughts.
ReplyDeleteUntil then, if you look at Feely's stats , you'll see that while he had been money up until our game, hitting 23 of 25 entering our game (sorry CitK, "our" is much easier to type that "the Seahawk's") that total only included 5 attempts of 40 or more yards, of which he hit 4.
One 40 yarder in SD in Sept. (have you seen the weather out there?)
One 40-something and a 50 yarder at Dallas in Oct. (again great weather)
One 40-something and one 50 yarder made, one 50-something missed at home against the Redskins in Oct. (HFA)
And a 48-yarder in Minnesota two weeks ago (Dome)
He did hit a 43-yard FG in our game but that was early, and I believe, going the other way.
So, while the Giants surely had 3 chances to win the game, a 40, 45 and 54 yard attempt for this boy is not exactly a GIMME, so missing them shouldn't really be considered LUCKY.
Posted by alba
lmao
ReplyDeletebut seriously, to add to your point...tell John Clayton to go out there and hit those field goals
Posted by adp
What is luck?
ReplyDeleteDon't blow your mind on this one.
I think luck is a bunch of crap. More often than not, luck is the personification of the law of averages.
If the ball falls out of Shaun Alexander's hands, does Mr. or Mrs. Luck decide if it will strike the earth to the left of the point of the ball, so it harmlessly bobbles out of bounds, or does it lean to the right, so that it goes into the hands of the defender? Or does Shaun decide by his immense skill?
I say none of them. In some cases, the games are determined by the same principles as a coin toss, the law of averages eventually comes through.
"Luck", being stated as being on the side of one team or another, is intellectually dishonest and a falwed, illogical concept. Teams do not retain a quantity of it, as if it can "run out", as is often said. Teams will APPEAR to be lucky, because as a result of their dogged determination, preparation, and effort, more things will go their way than for other teams.
This is the case with the Seahawks this season. I think that ANYONE who says they are just "lucky", is not giving the team the credit they deserve for their success this far.
Unless maybe Mr. and Mrs. Luck tell me otherwise.
Posted by Bluefoot
True. If Eli doesn't have Shockey or Plax in the line up, they only get ONE undeserved TD!
ReplyDeleteAnd only one of Feely's kick had the distance to be dangerous. The first one was just shanked.
Posted by alba
My wife's cousins are named Mr. and Mrs. Luck (truthfully), so I'll as them!
ReplyDeletePosted by alba
Because you specifically requested not to blow my mind... sorry, I have to reply.
ReplyDeleteI agree with what I took your definition of luck, it is essentially having the law of averages work for you. That said, luck is easier to say, much like "we" is easier to say than "the Seahawks", to use an alba-ism.
In case anyone is thinking I am saying they are just lucky, I'm not. I'm saying they are very good, and this particular game they were good and lucky... meaning the law of averages (and the apparent averageness of Feeley's leg) worked in our favor. And that it's ok to be lucky, it happens to everyone at some point, as the linked article illustrated.
Posted by JoSCh
You know, I was thinking the same thing about 'luck' and 'we'. It's what you call it, for thinking people. But for a lot of people, those who lean toward the superstitious, it really does mean something else.
ReplyDeleteThat is why I like to clarify the whole thing, and drop the 'lucky'. It's used too often to minimize the effort and skill needed to accomplish a win, and discredits the winning team.
Posted by Bluefoot
I dpn't want this to start a quarrel of what we call it when the ball bounces our way, I don't actually have a problem with the word 'lucky'. I just have a problem with defining the Seahawks as such.
ReplyDeleteIf I remember correctly from the days before marriage, "getting lucky" was always a good thing!
ReplyDeletePosted by alba
It's becoming increasingly harder for me to get lucky the longer I'm married... :-( But it's still a good thing!
ReplyDeletePosted by JoSCh
Funny how after a certain number of years of marriage, the definition of "getting lucky" changes to being able to watch the game in peace without the wife and kids around!!!
ReplyDeletePosted by alba
What did you think I was alluding to when I typed, "But is it really luck that caused Feeley to miss his three chances, while Josh Brown nailed his one and only? "
ReplyDeletePosted by Bluefoot
Well, while it's not clear who you're talking to in your post Bluefoot, one can only assume you meant:
ReplyDelete1. not being able to get nookie from the missus
2. having the TV to yourself on game day
or
3. the statistical analysis of Feely's lack of dominance in the 40+ yard range
Posted by alba
Wow! this was a pretty good conversation.
ReplyDeleteI think that if being lucky means winning games the seahawks can be the luckiest people on earth. If the seahawks win the superbowl and the media calls them lucky who cares they got a ring and the media didn't so tell the media to shut up.
CitK i did alot of retyping, had to keep erasing the we's and putting in Seahawks. haha
Posted by o-meezy
No you the man CitK. "We" the men (i can say we now right)
ReplyDeletePosted by o-meezy
From SANDO:
ReplyDeleteNFL director of officiating Mike Pereira went on NFL Network tonight and said officials should not have awarded a touchdown to Giants TE Jeremy Shockey during the Seahawks-Giants game Sunday. He said there wasn't enough evidence to overturn the ruling, but there also wasn't enough evidence to make the initial ruling that Shockey had scored. In that case, the initial ruling should be incomplete pass.
POSTER LEMON SAYS:
that's a ridiculous statement.
if the announcers, all of us watching on TV, and the director of officiating can see that it was the wrong call, then the referee can damn well see the same thing with his head under the hood. otherwise the whole system is pointless.
POSTER BRANDON SAYS:
It seems that the built in caveat that a call should never be overturned without incotrovertable evidence has become a crutch that referees rely on to save themselves from making difficult decisions.
This isn't court, there is no burden of proof. Just make the right call. Otherwise instant replay itself is inherently flawed and serves no purpose other than to allow the networks more time for self-promotion and advertising revenue.
Although, considering the current state of NFL telecasts, that's the whole point, isn't it?
All good points
WHAT!?!?!
ReplyDeletePOSTER BLUEFOOT SAYS:
I agree with lemon. How can this guy look at a tape and offically say it was not truly a catch, but then say there was not enough evidence to overturn it?
That's asinine. Completely and thoroughly asinie.
Posted by Bluefoot
By the way, a great quote from Holmie in the press conference today:
ReplyDelete“I think it happens," Holmgren said, "You get that feeling like, ‘Heck, that was pretty good. We maybe dodged a bullet, but you know what? We played pretty hard, and we got in position to win it and we won it.’ To say that luck doesn’t play a little or the ball bounces your way doesn’t play a part in this business, you’re nuts. You guys have covered it. We’ve all been at this a long time. It happens. We’ve had a couple in the last couple years that were horrible losses that bounced the other way. So it’s nice to go through a season where every once in a while, you know, it kind of goes your way. But there also, let’s give credit where credit is due. I am never going to apologize for a win, ever. I’m just not going to do it. It’s too hard to win a game. So if you’re in a position at any time in a football game to win a game, and everyone is playing on the same field, everyone is playing with the same amount of time, and you win, you win. How you win or what happens, heck, that’s football.”
You mean the Seahawks WON that game??!!
ReplyDeleteWouldn't know it by listening to the "experts"!!!
Posted by alba
Luck shmuck, it's all a matter of perspective! It used to be said that in the NFL there is no such thing as luck, but no that the media has become more biased than ever before, that old axium is apparently no longer in vogue.
ReplyDeleteWas it luck when after the Chargers had all but beaten the Eagles they block the game winner and return it for the TD, like they did when they played the Chargers?
Was it lucky, the Bears squeaking on out against the Bucs because the Bucs kicker missed an easy chip shot?
Was it luck that the Broncos won the coin flip against the Cowboys last week in a game that was admittedly close, but had mostly gone the Cowboys way?
Were the Redskins lucky when Josh Brown missed the game winner at the end of regulation?
Was it luck the way that the Giants came from behind against the Broncos, who had all but beaten them?
Funny, I didn't hear the media screaming about luck in any of those.
Claiming the winning team was lucky is just a biased persons way of whining.
It is just as easy for me to make the case that the Giants got lucky to even take the Hawks into overtime. After getting awarded two T.D.'s that weren't, it looked for all the world like either the Giants had paid off the officials or they were the worlds LUCKIEST team.
The Giants were very lucky to have gotten three shots at it, imagine getting three shots at an OT victory, now THAT'S luck!
But then I am biased aren't I? See how easy it is to paint LUCK any way you want to? luck can be anything you make of it afterwards.
My point is that in the NFL there is no such thing as luck good or bad, there are good and bad plays, good and bad calls, etc...but there is no such thing as luck really. Luck had nothing to do with the Giants kicker missing those field goals, they were from quite a ways out, and adding the wind and the crowd noise to it all, I would have said they were more lucky if he had hit one of them. (again my perspective just to further illustrate what nonsense this whole luck thing is)
Bottom line is that luck is just one persons perspective, that's all it is. Two people can watch the exact same event and one can say that it was lucky, the other unlucky and neither one has a more valid claim.
The media just proves their bias by pulling out the luck card whenever the Seahawks win close games.
Well since they missed 3 field goals that coulda made the difference...and thats considered lucky...how about we use this 'knowledge' in a NBA game...
ReplyDeleteThe Spurs beats ummm, lets say, Detroit for the NBA Championship, in lets say...game 4...
Spurs win...umm, lets say...94-88
Detroit missed 48 shots in the game...so does that make the Spurs ultra lucky that some of those didn't go in...which would add up to the difference of the game?
That must mean every single NBA team who wins, was lucky in every single game, that some of the opposing team's shots did not go in...
Different sports or not, that logic they are putting out to the world is obviously irrelevant, and excuse worthy...
I have said numerous times, I don't care what the media thinks, I don't mind being under the radar...but the whole world watches, and reads this stuff...and I don't want this team to have a reputation as a joke...which week in and week out we are being named as
Posted by adp
LINK
ReplyDeleteGIVE BOOMER ESIASON A NOBEL PRIZE FOR HIS ONE SENTENCE OF PERFECTION...
New York Giants: Two horrendous NFC losses to Seattle and Minnesota make you question whether or not they have mental toughness to go the distance.
Seattle Seahawks: They're rolling along nicely, led by surefire MVP candidate Shaun Alexander. Expect home-field advantage through the playoffs.
Not once did he say luck...and did I not say we were in the same boat last year, except on the losing side of these games? Yet we go bashed...sure enough, we win games like this...we still get bashed...someone finally gets their head out of their ass and reads the result of this game correctly...
Posted by adp
I love it! Mental toughness. How many times have the Seahawks heard that in the past?
ReplyDeleteI hve a newfound respect for Mr. Esiason.
Posted by highwatermark
NOt so fast HiH20...don't forget it was Mr. Esiason's Bengals that bounced us out of the playoffs in the 80s.
ReplyDeletePosted by alba