Tuesday, November 22, 2005

mon-KEYS to the Game

I'm sure we all recognize the importance of this game, it will likely be the only game, (other than the Colts game) left on the Seahawks schedule, where they will be facing an opponent with roughly equivalent talent.
So without going any further into the impact of this game (and because I have a lot to say) I will jump right into my mon-KEYS.

The Giants defense is an above average defense who can give a team fits, if they are unprepared for what they bring. But like any team in today's NFL, they have both strengths and weaknesses which can be exploited. Arguably the Giants greatest defensive strength is on the defensive line, where they have two very good pass rushers on the ends, including Michael Strahan, who is a sure fire can't miss first ballot Hall of Famer, and deserves to be. Strahan is an elite end, who deserves all the accolades he gets, he is flat out scary. On the other side, is Osi Umenyiora, who is no slouch himself though certainly not anywhere near the caliber of Strahan. Osi plays RE and will line across Walter Jones, which means that Osi doesn't even factor into this game at all. He might as well be sitting on sidelines, because he won't be doing anything other than getting pushed around anyway. The same can be said of William Joseph, the RDT for the Giants who will be lined against Steve Hutchinson, he too will not be a factor in this game. Unfortunately Sean Locklear and Chris gray will have their work cut out for them against Strahan and Kendrick Clancy the Giants LDT who is decent but not great. I feel sorry for Chris Gray when the Giants run stunts to get Strahan inside to pass rush, and I get the feeling that Locklear is about to have his biggest test as a pro.
There is one other Giants defender who I should mention here, who is quickly emerging as an elite defensive player, that is MLB Antonio Pierce, who is as sure a tackler as there is in the league. He is good at shedding blocks, and even better at mucking up an opposing teams running game. Those are the real strengths of the Giants defense, but as I said, there are weaknesses as well, and these weaknesses can be exploited with the right game plan.
First of all, the Giants Corners Will Allen and William Peterson, are both very average at best. They are both very, very beatable, though this weakness is usually not exposed, due to the Giants pass rush. Brent Alexander the Giants free safety and Gibral Wilson the strong safety also neatly fit into the category of average at best. Nothing about the Giants secondary is very scary, except that they have the distinct advantage of having a terrific pass rush ahead of them, which mostly covers up their inadequacies. Everyone knows that the best way to slow down a good pass rush, is to run the ball right at the pass rushers. Slow them down by pushing them backwards, tire them out, and get them out of their game, get them thinking run instead of pass, and you have a very good shot at least slowing down considerably the pass rushing effectiveness.

Offensive mon-KEY #1: Run the ball down Strahans throat!Strahan is not one of those one dimensional pass rushers who cannot play the run, he can and does, but he is not nearly as good at run stopping as he is pass rushing, not nearly. Strahan also has the tendency to over-pursue, which can open up cutback lanes for Alexander. With Strong lead blocking, the left side of the Giants DLine can be exploited by the running game, it will not be easy, but it can and MUST be done, if the Seahawks want to take Strahan out of his game early, (and believe me they do!). Don't get me wrong, I'm not talking about running at the expense of the pass, not at all, as I said I think the giants weak spot is in their secondary, which means passing will be the best way to hurt them.
I just mean that we need to give Strahan a dose of Alexander, to slow him down.

Offensive mon-KEY #2: On passing downs, give Locklear and Gray help.
This means, don't be afraid to move Stevens over to that side to help block, or to leave Strong in at times. Also there are several things that Hasselbeck can do to help, by getting rid of the ball early. Plays that allow Hasselbeck to waggle, or even roll out to get some separation from Strahan wouldn't hurt either.
The one big advantage the Seahawks have here, is that the west coast offense is supposed to be about quick, short passing; and quick short passes, do not allow Strahan the time he needs to do any real damage.
Having said that, the way that the Giants will likely try to counter the short quick passing game, is by bringing up the corners close and bumping our receivers in that 5 yards bump zone.
Nice thing about that though, is sometimes, while it may disrupt the quick passing game somewhat, it will allow the receiver to beat the Corner deep. Hass really must not be afraid to go deep and take a shot when that happens. Also, bringing the corners up, can allow Stevens to slip into the middle of the zone or get deep and hurt them bad.
I have noticed in nearly every game this season that there are at least one or two plays where Stevens has gotten wide open deep, and Hass has not thrown him the ball. It would be wise, for Hasselbeck to take advantage of Stevens as often as the situation presents itself against the Giants. Which leads me to my next point.

Offensive mon-KEY #3: Take advantage of the height disparity our receivers have on the Giants corners. In saying this of course, I have in mind, especially Stevens and Jurivicius.
There will likely be times when it appears to Hasselbeck that no one is really wide open (partly because of our receivers lack of blazing speed for separation), this simply means he needs to throw it up high and let Stevens and J.J. out jump the Giants defenders for it. Up until now, Matt has not really had to do too much of that, our receivers have generally found ways to get enough separation, especially on crossing patterns, that Hass can lead them. Against the Giants pass rush, there simply may not be enough time to wait for the crossing patterns to develop.
No problem, just throw it up high, and let our trees go get it.
The Giants corners, as I said before are truly a weak spot on the Giants defense, Holmgren should be able to design ways to attack them and take advantage of our size disparity.
Strangely, despite the fact that the Giants daily practice against Shockey, I have noticed a tendency in the Giants defense, that also can and should be exploited, and ties in with an earlier mon-KEY I gave. Teams that have played the Giants have been able to use their TE as a sort of blocking decoy, it appears as if the TE is in as an extra blocker on Strahans side, but then rather than actually blocking, he fakes the block then pops off the line 5-15 yards into the middle of the field wide open. You would not think that the Giants would be caught off guard by this since they have Shockey but it is true I have seen it myself. Hopefully Holmgren and company have also noticed this tendency and have factored Stevens heavily into the game plan, because I believe it will work.

Offensive mon-KEY #4 No more three and outs, like the Seahawks had against the Niners! Ball control will be a HUGE mon-KEY in this game! I know that nearly every week I stress the importance of running the ball, but this week I must stress it even more than usual. In order to keep the Giants offensive weapons off the field and to slow down the pass rush, running the ball this game is a MUST, no matter how much Holmgren hates it! Like I said before short quick passes as a compliment to the run also is a must. I want to see several long time consuming drives in this game, because if the Hawks can Put together several of those types of drives, they WILL WIN. If not, the Hawks defense will be in for a long, long day.
Defensively, the Seahawks really have their work cut out for them. The Giants are one of those teams that are truly balanced, they are equally effective this season running the ball and throwing the ball. With the addition of Plaxico Burress, the Giants passing game has become scary, and Tiki Barber is simply one of the most dangerous weapons in the league. Tiki (along with the Falcons Warrick Dunn) are two of the NFLs running backs who I consider among the leagues most underrated players. Tiki Barber is the kind of back who can single-handedly destroy a defense, not only with his running, which is both fast and shifty, but also with his hands, which are among the best among NFL backs.
As of this posting, I am not sure just how effective that Shockey will be against us, since he was apparently hurt in the chest enough that he was having difficulty lifting his arms enough to dress himself. Whether he plays or not is at this time up in the air, and whether or not he will be 100% for this game is very unlikely. Still Shockey Must be accounted for as he also is a VERY dangerous weapon in the Giants arsenal.

Defensive mon-KEY #1: Watch the Vikings vs. Giants game film until it is BURNED into every defensive players memories and EMULATE IT! While my wife Monster thinks that it is cruel and unusual punishment to watch the Vikings at all, the Vikings game planned PERFECTLY for the Giants, at least from a defensive perspective.
What the Vikings did, was simply take Plaxiglass and Shockey out of the equation, they did this by doubling up on Plaxiglass nearly the entire game, and by hitting Shockey, and hitting him hard each and every time he came off the line.

Therefore, Defensive mon-KEY #2 Double up on Plaxico Burress, take him out of the game, even at the expense of allowing Amani Toomer making a few catches. Toomer is a decent WR but he is not really anything special, what he can do to the Seahawks defense is not nearly what Plaxico can do to it. Plaxico has both the size and the speed to hurt us bad. Toomer has neither.

Defensive mon-KEY #3 Put a helmet on Shockey every time he comes off the line, (or if he isn't playing then hit the backup). Shockey shouldn't be 100% so I am not as worried about him as I normally would be, but still...one never knows. Hit him, hit him and hit him. Take him our of his routes, disrupt his timing.
If the Seahawks do these two things, Eli Manning has shown that he can and will make STUPID ROOKIE like mistakes. The Vikings defense is certainly no better than ours, and yet they found a way to completely get into Mannings head, by taking away his two primary targets, he looked dazed and confused.

Defensive mon-KEY #4 Tiki Barber is the key to the Giants offense, STOP HIM AT ALL COSTS! It really doesn't matter what it takes to stop him, this guy is flat out dangerous, the largest part of the defensive game plan should revolve around ways of taking out this threat. If he is allowed to get on a roll early, he can hurt us more than anyone else on this team.
Having said that, the Seahawks also have one very big advantage over the Giants here; as a unit, the Giants offensive line is actually pretty darn pathetic. The Seahawks defense SHOULD be able to put more than adequate pressure on Manning even without blitzing, by just bring our front four, we should be able to find ways to get sacks and or at least be disruptive. Although Luke Pettigout is not bad, I would say he is a pretty decent LT, he is really about it for the Giants OLine. I fully expect the Seahawks DT's along with Bryce Fisher to have a big day against this line. I expect Rocky Bernard and Chuck Darby to fully have their way with David Diehl and Chris Snee, the Giants two guards who are nothing to write home about.
Fisher will be lined against McKenzie who is OK but again nothing to write home about, and I look for Fisher to own him the same way that he has owned every RT he has faced so far this season. Even Wistrom has a much easier task this week against Pettigout than he has against most of the LT's he has faced this season.
This should be a very big advantage for the Seahawks this game, in that without bringing extra rushers too often they can still find ways to disrupt.

Bottom line: This is likely to be a very tough game for the Seahawks, there is no doubt that the Giants are a good team with some very dangerous weapons. However, I also believe that we really truly match up very well with this team. The Giants great pass rush has yet to face an offensive line like ours. Even against the monster Strahan, the Seahawks OLine has the advantage IMHO.
Though it will not be easy to run against the Giants, it shouldn't really be that difficult either. To this point in the season, the Giants have not been a very good run stopping team, they do have a darn good MLB who will likely cause some headaches, but overall, this team CAN be run against. And it should if the Hawks want to slow down the pass rush.
I truly believe that as much as the Seahawks defense has their work cut out for them, the Giants defense has it's work cut out for them even more so. Given the Giants weak secondary, and their average at best run stopping, I really see no problems moving the ball against the Giants, and even if it becomes a shootout, outscoring them.
I'm not sure why it is that the Seahawks are not getting very many turnovers, but against the inexperienced, and mistake prone, Eli Manning this should be one of those games where the defense looks for and anticipates getting a few. The defense MUST be aggressive, no more of this soft a$$ crap like we saw against the Niners. That sort of crap will NOT work against the Giants...I repeat, WILL NOT! We cannot afford to allow the Giants to move the ball freely between the 20s like we have thus far in the season, bend don't break will break against this caliber offense, mark my words!

monkey's prediction: The Seahawks win in a shootout squeaker, Seahawks 42 Giants 35

6 comments:

  1. Since I live in New York, I get plenty of chances to see the Giants. I thought the monKEYs were pretty much right on. On defense, the way to beat Manning is to make him progress through his reads and throw the ball out of rhythm. He doesn't do a good job setting his feet if you force him out of his drop, and he misses a lot of open recievers that way. Plus, outside of Burress and Shockey the Giants have no weapons in the passing game (in part because they seem strangely reluctant to pass to Barber). As for stopping Tiki, they have to play disciplined because a lot of his big runs come on cutbacks against over-aggressive defenses.

    Offensively, the Seahawks should be able to move the ball against the Giants. Remember, this Giants team has faced TWO quality offenses all year. The Broncos lost 24-23 in New York, but when the Giants went on the road against the Chargers, they got destroyed 44-24. If the Seahawks can avoid turnovers (the reason the Giants defense has looked average is because they force turnovers which cover up the gaping holes in the secondary), they'll win, and probably fairly easily. 

    Posted by Zach

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  2. You left very little for anyone else to say... dare I say now YOU are now the attention whore?

    mon-Key 4 is where the rubber meets the road. We had better get clicking on offense, no three and outs, and frankly a score on every drive would be great. No D-Jack has me a bit worried, I really thought he and they would push hard for this game. But at the same time I'd rather see him better the next week and the rest of the season than 75% this game and throughout, so I guess they are doing the right thing. Matt has to be efficient, and I don't care who catches the passes, as long as they move the chains. By efficient I mean 70% completion ratio.

    I agree, we match up very well, and this should be a great game. I don't think we'll need to score more than 31 to win.

    Sidebar: monkey, I think you may be taking the run down the throats thing too far. I'm the first to say that Shaun needs his 25+ carries, but he is stoppable if he has to face 10 in the box. Since the Jax game I thought they ran him quite well, enough, and effectively. Obviously he wasn't quite as effective in the Was game, and particularly the Dal game, part of that was the fact that they played him well, and left the passing lanes open. I'm going on record as saying they need to pass the ball more, effectively. The good news, as far as I'm concerned, that other than the 4th quarter in the last game, the play calling and execution was excellent. Erase the couple of drops, erase the *very predictable* 4th quarter play calling, and you've got a great game plan. I hope that continues. 

    Posted by JoSCh

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  3. JoSCH I don't disagree with you at all that except for the Dallas Jax and Washington games, the Hawks have run the ball just about perfectly. And as you said those three games, they stacked against the run.
    I wasn't really talking about running at the expense of the pass, not at all, as I said I think the giants weak spot is in their secondary, which means passing will be the best way to hurt them.
    I just meant that we need to give Strahan a dose of Alexander, to slow him down. If he gets 25 carries it should be fine, but naturally the Hawks have a tendency to run towards their strength which of course is the left side of the line. But to stop or at least slow down Strahan, we should run at him at least a few times.
    I just get the feeling that time of possesion will be very key in this game, leaving our defense out to dry like last week will not work. We were lucky to get away with it, a Hasselbeck at 70% complettion percentage, as you said is what we need the most.
    A balanced offense with quick passes and enough runs at Strahan to slow him down should be enough to beat this team I believe.
    I too am waiting and hoping that soon Matt goes off for one of his big games. This week would be nice! I think the problem has partly been DJack not being in hte lineup, and of course when both DJack and Bobby were out it really inhibited the passing game. Our overall lack of reciever speed hasn't helped either. Matt's due, he's overdue in fact, and I really hope that he blows up this game, I would love to see one of those two to three TD 250-300 yard passing games from him. If that happens we win easy.

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  4. I think turnover are key to this game. Manning all year hasn't had a high completion percentage. Its only luck that has such a low completion percentage and no interceptions. They usually go hand in hand. If you aren't hitting your receivers, the ball is sailing to other parts of the field, and thats when interceptions happen. We need to expose this and make them pay for it. Look for a big game from our playmakers on D. I'm thinking Boulware has a huge game. 

    Posted by gumbostu

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  5. I think the keys will be turnovers and 60 minutes of defense.

    Both offenses will score, but the one that benefits from turnovers, and a shorter field will pull ahead.

    And the Hawks need to play a full 60 minutes on D. The Midges have scored a lot of points in the 4th. 

    Posted by bokonon

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