Wednesday, November 16, 2005

NFC West Update: Week 11




Just because we more or less have this thing wrapped up doesn't mean we can't see what everyone else is up to.

A quick note though, I conceded the argument this week: The NFC West is the weakest division in the NFC. The Vikings are playing better, as are the Lions.

HOWEVER: A week division does not mean we have a weak team at the top. The Patriots the past two seasons have played in a reletively weak division. Anyone want to knock them? Who wants to say the Colts aren't that good because they play Houston and Tennessee twice each? Didn't think so.

Looking at the sidebar, I read someone talk about Carolina not playing anybody. I think that argument, while an important one, is over used. Carolina is a good team, as is Seattle. Its not who you play, but how you play them. For instance, the Bears told me everything I needed to know about them last week by playing poorly against the 49ers: They're not that good. More on this game later.

I would also lean off from the "Who have they played" argument for another reason. You will hear a lot of it down the stretch about Seattle. To say this team could finish the year 12-4 or 13-3 is not something that will get you laughed off a talk radio show. Not with this schedule that includes San Fransisco twice, Tennessee, and a delapidated Eagles squad.

But enough about the 'Hawks...this column is for the also-rans.
Lets get right to it.

The Standings
Seattle 7-2 (4-0)
St. Louis 4-5 (1-3)
Arizona 2-7 (1-3)
San Fransisco 2-7 (1-3)

St. Louis Rams
Last week: 31-16 loss to Seattle
Threat to win the division: Low

The skinny: Rams fans believe this team has a shot to maybe win out the rest of the year and get a wild card. And it would appear that the schedule is permitting (just looking at the next three: Arizona, at Houston, Washington).

Just one thing: This team is bad. Its week 11, and the Rams have yet to reach their potential. Meaning, it ain't gonna happen. Sorry, Rams fans. Your team is destined to be mediocre. The offense is slower by just a step, and the defense is very beatable.

Even "mentally tough" Torri Holt dropped two touchdowns on Sunday.

Can the Rams turn it around? Yes. But they're wake up call should have been before this last game. They didn't appear to be ready for the challenge. Why should we expect them to be ready to close that two game gap in the wild card chase?

This week: vs Arizona

Arizona Cardinals
Last week: 29-21 loss to Detroit
Threat to win the division: Laughable

The skinny: Call it obsession, but from here on out this might become the "Alan Likes Neil Rackers" section of the blog. Maybe its because I took a gamble on him last year in fantasy football, but I like the guy.

Rackers has yet to miss a kick, and is five for five from fifty yards plus. Can you imagine what this guy could do for a bubble team? How many teams need to get to the twenty or twenty-five to give their kickers a legit shot. With Rackers, get to the thirty and you're golden.

As for the rest of the Cardinals...well, they get paid to play pro football. They probably thought it would have worked out differently.

Why are the Cardinals so bad? Maybe its the 607 total rushing yards total on the season. Everybody. Added up. 607. To put that in prespective, Shaun Alexander's 88 yard TD run would account for 14% of their rushing total. Or that Alexander's rushing total in two games against the Cardinals is 51% of their rushing total.

(With that kind of research, you'd think I'd get a paid gig or something!)

This week: at St. Louis

San Fransico 49ers
Last week: 17-9 loss to Chicago
Threat to win the division: If its the Big XII North...nah. Still low.

The Skinny: I like Mike Nolan. He's a great coach, and he has the team playing hard. And he's been getting a lot of flack for kicing a field goal at the end of the half that was returned 108 yards for the game deciding play.

And it was simply a good decision. Everybody has ripped this guy for that call. Why kick the ball? You can't kick it 52 yards in that wind?

Here's why: Your team, that is bad, is up 3 points on a division leader on the road. Their offense has done nothing all day. Your kicker has been good on two field goals (one negated by a Chicago penalty). Why don't you try for the six point lead?

We all know hindisght is 20/20. But, really, does anyone make a decision to kick a field goal and think, "But what if they do return it 100 plus yards for a score...?" No. You don't do that. You try to kick the field goal to get the points. Because 99 times out of 100 that kick is either made or falls harmlessly to the ground. The Bears happened to get that one lucky time.

This was not the gamble of the century by Mike Nolan. And if you want something to worry about in S.F., worry that your team couldn't score a touchdown on a drive that began on the Bears' two.

This week: vs Seattle

Enjoy the games,

Alan

9 comments:

  1. The Carolina hasn't played anyone argument is underused, if anything. They barely beat the Jets, They barely beat the Cardinals. They barely beat Green Bay. They barely beat Detroit. Their two losses came to Miami and New Orleans (granted, they barely lost those games)...Im not saying they aren't a good team,a s I have openly said throughout the year that its Dallas and Carolina we need to beat...It just amazes me the influence the media has when they say a team is great, everyone believes them.

    Our schedule isn't that great either, but at least we are blowing teams out left and right...and lost to better teams...so im not saying Carolina is better, im just saying the media comparison is inaccurate as of Week 11. Seattle is playing better right now. Sorry.




    As for the Wind thing in Chicago, I would agree with you if I had no idea how long the field goal was...52 yards in wicked wind with a below average kicker? Nah...Chicago's offense isn't very good, so I would of taken my chances with a punt. THAT, however, could of gone either way...either way, better them then us. :)


    Belive it or not, the team with the best shot to take the division from us now is SF...Arizona is mathematically eliminated if we win 2 more games, or they lose 2...or we win one and they lose one...from here on out. ST. Louis needs a huge collapse to tie, and pass us to avoid a tiebreaker, meanwhile SF could sweep us, gain two games, plus the tiebreaker, putting them back into the race...yes, I almost laughed typing that, but its true!!!


    Anyways, another good update...and thanks for pouring some more Shaun Alexander crazy stats into the blender of baffleness, just when I thought there was no more interesting stats out there with him...crazyness

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  2. I gotta brag...

    Am I not calling the shots this year? I mean my predictions were dead accurate the moment Pennington's injury screwed up my original predictions...

    I have gotten almost everything right so far, should the way the NFL is now stick the same until the end of the season, im dubbing myself ADPiece Of Some Mad Brain

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  3. Dude, I have to admit you have a knack. You also kicked my butt my a mile at the KO pool. 

    Posted by Bluefoot

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  4. Alan - once again entertaining and informative analysis, and ADP, bit your tongue on SF sweeping Seattle!

    Maybe since it appears we have the division wrapped up, you can change the tag line to "threat to make the playoffs"?

     

    Posted by alba

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  5. Nice piece. It would have been so easy to bathe in the kool-aid and go on a jag.

    Suggestion moving forward...

    How about adding some kind of tidbit about which NFC team we should be rooting against to lock up home field for the playoffs. For instance, this week I'm a Bears fan. 

    Posted by bokonon

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  6. ADP, why would the 49ers punt? It was the last play of the half...even if he misses and the Bears return it, you've got to figure you can tackle the guy before he gets to the end zone. 

    Posted by Zach

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  7. another detail i didnt know, the end of the half part...

    in that case, it makes the decision obvious... 

    Posted by adp

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  8. Re the SF kick thing... the kicking team seemed to be leaving the field, which is pretty normal under normal circumstances. But this wasn't, it was an end of the half, long kick, in wind, and the Bears had a guy in the endzone waiting on the short kick. The kicking team should've been aware that a run back was possible, even probable. So while I agree they shouldv'e attempted the kick, I disagree on the well coached point.

    Agree with Bok and albe with alba's tweak, maybe change this from NFC West to NFC contenders? 

    Posted by JoSCh

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  9. Yea, it almost seems foolish to be continuing to break down the Cards, and hopefully over the next 3 weeks, we'll extinguish any flicker of hope the 49ers have, so it won't make much sense to discuss them either.

    With the number of NFC teams actually THREATENING to make the playoffs dwindling to a manageable bunch, this may be a great idea.

    Of course, it's Alan's piece, so he gets to do whatever he wants with it! 

    Posted by alba

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