Not to take away from the Dyson news, I'm posting this below it.I just made a post on the PI forum that I found to be pretty compelling analogy to the Shaun Alexander contract situation, so I thought I'd share it here.
My point is that while I HOPE the Seahawks resign Shaun, and while I think it's the RIGHT THING TO DO, I also fully understand their reasoning for waiting.
Look at it this way.
Let's say a year ago you signed a one-year deal on this AWESOME piece of coastal propery in New Orleans, which cost you a pretty penny.
Your family had been going there for the past several years and it holds a lot of special memories for you.
By luck, it survived the Katrina nightmare.
Would you be willing to pay 4-5 years of up front money TODAY to keep that property, or might you rather just ride out the current lease before making that decision?
And while your heart is begging you to keep it, wouldn't you really want to know what you could get for the place on the open market, and look to see what's available some place else?
I too understand the arguments for not signing him, I really do. They truly make some sense.
ReplyDeleteThe thing is, Alexander is not really that old, he's just not. He's 28 yrs old and has NEVER missed a game due to injury. He hastaken some hits sure, but the fact is, he never seems to take the kind of hits that shorten a career.
He does what football guys call, "playing behind the pads" meaning he lets his pads absorb the blows, he uses his body and angles to absorb the hits in such a way that he doesn't get beat up.
I really believe that he has another 4-5 good years in him, I really do, and nothing in his career to this point indicates otherwise. His running ability isn't predicated so much on speed and power as it is smarts. His field vision and timing is what allows him to be great, those things don't necessarily go away with age, at least not as quickly as blazing speed and raw power do.
Like I said I hear the arguments, I get the point and it is valid, and it will be something of a risk to sign him; BUT it is also a risk (and in my opinion a much bigger one) to not sign him and to hope that we can get someone to replace him.
There is no one at the college level who will slide to us in the draft better, or even close to as good. There will not be another vet, (except perhaps...though I think it's a long shot, Edgerin James, but I think he'll resign with the COlts) who can even carry Alex's jock. I suppose if things work right possibly a trade could happen but trades are rare things in the NFL.
And PLEASE don't try to convince me that Morris can do the job as well as SA, I will not buy that! If he were so darn good, he would have been the starter this season instead of the Hawks franchising Alex. If Momo were really the future of this team the Hawks would have let SA walk last offseason rather than spending 6 milllion on him, so give me a break.
I just say that when it ain't broke don't fix it, right now we have the most dangerous offense in the NFL mostly due to Alexander, why change? WHy not sign him to a four year deal (bearing in mind that NFL contracts are NOT guaranteed) and ride out the next four years with the NFLs best offense? WHy change now when we're so damn close to winning it all?
THis is a superbowl offense now, without SA it is not, why take the risk of stepping back when we have a sure thing right now? It just don't make sense to me.
I think the main thing is what check pointed out a few weeks back, NFL contracts are not guaranteed. So it isn't really the length of a contract that is the problem, it's the front money.
ReplyDeleteIf SA starts showing his age after signing him to a long term contract (which I really doubt would happen but just for arguments sake I will say if) the Hawks will only be out the money given in the signing bonus and that years salary. They can cut him at any time.
So to my way of thinking, the bigger risk is NOT signing the NFLs best running back. The real question is why NOT sign him since the risk is really minimal but the payoff is HUGE. The risk of not signing himm is that we cannot find anyone to replace him, and our offense goes into the toilet. I am much more afraid of that possibility.
The signing bonus is what's at risk, as that's the nut that counts toward the cap, and what keeps us from signing other FAs.
ReplyDeleteWhat did Jones and Hass get for signing. I thought it was huge, like $20M?
That's a pretty big risk, in my book, and one I'm certainly not going to take while someone is already under contract and putting himself in harms way weekly.
Posted by alba
The thing is, if we let SA walk we STILL have to get someone else who won't be much cheaper. I mean maybe we can save 2 million but what if the replacement stinks? I'd rather spend the extra 2 and rest assured that we still have the best offense in the NFL.
ReplyDeleteThe issue is not to let him walk or not.
ReplyDeleteThe issue is to sign him before the season or not.
No way the Seahawks let him walk.
They just won't sign him until after the season is over. And this Dyson thing just underscores why.
He'll get his signing bonus and multi-year contract, but not until Ruskell successfully hedges that bet through week 17.
Posted by alba
Not a good analogy, as property has long term value, running backs don't. I'd buy property in NO right now if I had any money... it's gotta be cheap, and in 5-10 years it will be pre-Katrina prices or higher, it still is coastal property. And they got booze and hookers and gambling! Shaun in 5-10 years will be a broadcaster.
ReplyDeleteHow many years does WJ or MH have left to play? Guaranteed years, not speculative. Were the stupid risks? Seriously, I can see performing risk analysis, but I can also see performing cost to benefit analysis, and paying 20mil in bonus on a 4 year contract would seem to be in line, assuming of course that other contracts written in the past couple of years are in line. He is the best running back in the NFL, and is worth 5 to 6 mil of cap space a year.
Sacrificing this (or next) year for 4 years down the road is equally as dumb (possibly more dumb, who knows what happens 4 years down the road, Fun-N-Gun for all we know) than sacrificing 4 years down the road for now. Admittedly I am a dumb ass American, so I like instant (or at least prompt) gratification.
Although in the end I agree, not signing him at this point is smart, he gets hurt, he gets burned, he doesn't and we sign him to the deal we would have now, nobody gets burned. So I agree on not signing him now, but not in my heart.
Posted by JoSCh
The good thing about not posting anon, you can edit you posts... several probs in my last... you get it don't you?
ReplyDeletePosted by JoSCh
You're right of course alba, I was just arguing about signing him next year. Sorry I wandered down a rabbit trail of monkey thinking, it happens.
ReplyDeleteI get what you're saying and I understand that there is somewhat less risk with what you're talking about. Still though....c'mon you gotta pay the guy, he is the leagues MVP for cripes sake! As you said, it is just the right thing to do! But I get why they haven't I do...I just don't like it.
Yea. I get it. You start by disagreeing, since it's my topic, and then you conclude by agreeing with me.
ReplyDeleteYou're mood swings are worse than MONKEY'S!
Jones and Hass did NOT get new contracts while their current contracts were in force. They got them on the EVE of the free agency period, mostly because Allen needed to clean house of the executives who were stealing their paychecks.
It won't get that far with Shaun, and as a matter of fact, I truly believe that the evil genius Ruskie will ink the deal during our first round BYE to charge up the team, the fans and the newest NFL multi-millionare!
And the property analogy is AWESOME.
Posted by alba
If I were Paul Allen, I'd be happier with a shrewdy like Ruskell guarding my millions, rather than someone looking to make the "feel good deal".
ReplyDeleteShaun knows it. His agent understands it.
When the time is right, the Seahawks will offer a REASONABLE contract and Shaun will accept it.
Posted by alba
"And the property analogy is AWESOME. " My retort was AWESOMER!
ReplyDeletePosted by JoSCh
As a feedback whore, I've got no problem if you get credit, I just gotta get mine along the way!
ReplyDeletePosted by alba
I still think my AWESOMER retort blew your merely AWESOME analogy out of the water.
ReplyDeletePosted by JoSCh
I know it, I love to toy with you... you trashy little beast you.
ReplyDeletePosted by JoSCh
Vinny's still not convinced Monkey.
ReplyDeletefirst, in football, 28 is over-middle-aged.
Second, you don't 'require' and MVP type player to succeed, just a good gameplan and quality players. And like it or not, Sghaun is 'not' the only HB in the NFL that could perform at a high level in this system.*
*See Mo's YPC average.
The Hawks don't 'have' to show him the money, not when a quality Back could be had for millions less. That's the price of a good quality Safety or Corner.
Posted by Vinny
JoSCh...the question is "do you respect me in the morning?"
ReplyDeleteVinny, I'm going cliche' on your ass:
Better the devil you know.
A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
If it ain't broke, don't fix it
Better to spend a little more than you planned, than a little less than you should
Nobody ever got fired for buying an HP printer
Point is, when you have the league's MVP, and arguably the best running back of the past decade, YOU SIGN HIM.
We all talk about National media respect.
Can you imagine the beating we'd take if we let Shaun walk away?
Posted by alba
Woudn't Shaun look beautiful in Tennessee Titan powder blue next year?
ReplyDeletejust kidding, but look at what the "plug and play" running back philosophy has produced this year.
Cedric Benson - out with knee injury, was 2nd team
Ronnie Brown - Sharing carries with Rickey
Cadillac Williams - missed 5 games in mid-season
JJ Arrington - sucks
Ronde Barber - 2nd team
so much for drafing any warm body out of college.
Mo Morris? If he was so good then HE would be the starter. Just like SA took the job from Ricky Watters.
Posted by maomatt
Vin if there were someone out there worth saving a couple of bucks by not signing SA, then that would be one thing. But honestly, what player out there would make the team better than SA is doing now?
ReplyDeleteLet's say we save 2 million by not signing SA then picking up some RB to replace him who isn't as good. Now our offense is weaker. Then we spend the 2 Million we saved on who? Some CB or someother player we can live without who will help but not make up the difference for what we've lost offensively.
Your resoning makes no sense, if you want to be the best team you can be. Your reasoning only makes sense if you want to pinch pennies and just settle for being an average team.
BTW, I saw what Momo can do in our offense last Monday, I was NOT impressed.
Please don't give me yards per carry, cuz if you do that then I will give you all the stats SA has that you just dismiss as if they mean nothing.
Momo gets those YDS per, just like every single back up running back in the NFL does, because defenses aren't trying to stop them. EVERY backup has higher YDS per than the starter, that means nothing, they always do because teams let up against them.
Last Monday the Eagles defense tried to stop the run all game long, and the result was Alex had better YDS per than Momo who did nothing but get stopped behind the line of scrimmage.
I'll say it again, if it were true that anyone could run behind our line then Ruskell would have saved the 6 mil he spent this season on SA and just started Momo. But the truth is SA is way better, Momo isn't good enough and so Ruskell did the right thing and franchised SA.
Are you saying that Ruskells decision was bad Vin? Cuz that's what you 're saying when you knock SA.
I just wanna know who is available that is close to being as good as Shaun Alexander.
ReplyDeleteEdgerin James: He has a history of injury and he's as old if not older than Alexander
Jamal Lewis: The guy just flat out sicks. He's been to jail and i think he lost i there
Reggie Bush: If some people consider Alexander soft i don't know what to call Bush.
Someone tell me is there anyone who is close to being as good as Alexander.
If Alexander walks i'll be one pissed son of a gun and Ruskell will have to re-earn my trust cause it will walk with Alexander.
Posted by o-meezy
Skim, I never respect you, any time of day... LOL. I'll stay out of the Shaun thing with Vin Diesel...
ReplyDeletePosted by JoSCh
With his way of thinking on this topic, he's more like Vin Edsel!
ReplyDeletePosted by alba