With a game lead on Chicago and Carolina, and two games on Atlanta, Tampa, New York, and Dallas (before tie breakers) it looks like the Seahawks can afford only 2 losses of the three remaining games to get HFA.Here's how I see the rest of the season playing out for the NFC challengers:
TEAM current record (projected record)
SEATTLE 9-2 (13-3)
Dec 5 @Philadelphia - W
Dec 11 San Francisco - W
Dec 18 @Tennessee - W
Dec 24 Indianapolis - L
Jan 1 @Green Bay - W
Monday night we shed one of the last remaining demons, which is to win a game on the East coast. We take care of business with SF and lock things up (again on the East) with Tennesee, making the Colt and Packer games irrelevant!
CAROLINA 8-3 (10-6)
Dec 4 Atlanta - L
Dec 11 Tampa Bay - W
Dec 18 @New Orleans - W
Dec 24 Dallas - L
Jan 1 @Atlanta - L
Good defense but not impressed with DelHomme
CHICAGO 8-3 (11-5)
Dec 4 Green Bay - W
Dec 11 @Pittsburgh - L
Dec 18 Atlanta - W
Dec 25 @Green Bay - L
Jan 1 @Minnesota - W
Great defense and offense doing enough to win games. Pittsburgh will be playing for their playoff lives and Brett will close out his career in Green Bay with a win against the division leader.
ATLANTA 7-4 (10-4)
Dec 4 @Carolina - W
Dec 12 New Orleans - W
Dec 18 @Chicago - L
Dec 24 @Tampa Bay - L
Jan 1 Carolina - W
Maybe I'm listening to too much ESPN, but I think Vick takes two from Carolina
TAMPA BAY 7-4 (9-7)
Dec 4 @New Orleans - W
Dec 11 @Carolina - L
Dec 17 @New England - L
Dec 24 Atlanta - W
Jan 1 New Orleans - L
Chris Simms has his father's blood running through his veins, but he also has his mothers! I see them fading down the stretch, but catching Atlanta napping.
DALLAS 7-4 (11-5)
Dec 4 @N.Y. Giants - W
Dec 11 Kansas City - W
Dec 18 @Washington - L
Dec 24 @Carolina - W
Jan 1 St. Louis - W
I'm still impressed with what they did to the Seahawks, and they've got a good running game, great coach, and serviceable QB.
GIANTS 7-4 (10-6)
Dec 4 Dallas - L
Dec 11 @Philadelphia - W
Dec 17 Kansas City - W
Dec 24 @Washington - L
Dec 31 @Oakland - W
Ditto on the stallworth defense here. Young Eli's a gamer.
I edited my original post because I skimmed the NFL.com tie breaker page and misread the non-divisional procedure, which is shown below:
ReplyDeleteTwo Clubs
1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory.
5. Strength of schedule.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.
Thus, the Philly, SF and potentially GB games have equal importance to Seattle, if we see Carolina and Chicago as the closest competition for HFA.
Posted by alba
I don't agree that the Falcons will take two from the Panthers I think they will split.
ReplyDeleteI also see the Bears losing at least two more games than you do, maybe three if the Vikes beat them in the finale.
It would be pretty amazing for ATL to finish at 10-4!
ReplyDeletePosted by PaulieP
Nice presentation, lots of info on a huge topic, I've wanted to do something similar but couldn't think of a good way.
ReplyDeleteI see the Hawks going 12-4 (PHI & IND loses). I think CAR and ATL will split. MIN wins at home against CHI. I think DAL will win out. In the end I see the Hawks and DAL with the same record, but the Hawks win the head-to-head tie breaker.
Posted by bokonon
Anything that gives the Seahawks HFA is alright in my book.
ReplyDeleteI REALLY want to them to win on MNF to break this "East Coast" nonsense.
It's bad enough the Seahawks can't win in the East Coast media, but they should take care of business on the field.
Posted by alba
Alba, gotta disagree with your take on the Bears...that offense isn't doing jack...they are winning games because of turnovers, luck (sound familiar?), and oddities in that neighborhood
ReplyDeleteFor example, turnovers on the opponents side of the field, 108 yard field goal returns for tds, missed 29 yard field goals, etc...
Bears make the playoffs...but go out the minute they run into Seattle or New York...you can stop those teams, but they will still get points, which the Bears cant...and remember, when Seattle has been shut down this season, so has the other team (our defense seems to be better when our offense is worse)
PS...Eli just sucks, I have watched him for 4 straight games get bailed out by his receivers and running back...hes horribly inaccurate...Plax, Toomer, and Shockey can only make diving catches so much...the minute they cant...they exit the playoffs
Overall, good post alba, interesting take...though I think we have a legit shot at 5-0, with the Titans as the team im worried about (sorry Indy...I just think ur sitting ur starters come week 16)
Posted by adp
You may be right, the non-TD to Toomer was only catchable because the ball was so badly underthrown!
ReplyDeletePosted by alba
I just posted the following on the PI Forum in response to a question about what it would take for us to get HFA. I felt it was too nice of a post not to also share with my Blogger Buddies!
ReplyDeleteToo many possibilities to lay them all out here. Two things to remember:
1. we're currently leading everyone by at least one game, and folks we've beaten, like the Giants and Cowgirls by three.
2. If we end up tied with anyone other than the Giants and Cowgirls then it goes to best record in the CONFERENCE.
Currently, we're 8-1 in conference games. Chicago is next closest at 7-1 then Carolina (5-2) and Tampa (5-3).
Giants and Cowgirls are 6-2 and 6-3 respectively, but again it doesn't matter since we beat them head-to-head.
The good news is that our remaining NFC matchups are with the beatable Phillys, the hapless but resilient 49ers at home, and the finale at Lambeau, which by then it may not matter.
All the other teams need to play much tougher NFC matchups, including several divisional opponents and playing each other, some, like the Falcons and Panthers, twice.
So the FIRST order of business is to win at least as many games down the stretch as Chicago, Tampa and Carolina, and none of it matters. This includes our games against AFC teams, namely the Colts and Titans.
If we do have to lose a game or two, better it be against the AFC teams, so we end up with an 11-1 conference record and 12-4 overall.
This would mean that the 8-3 Bears would have to run the table outright, or go 4-1 to tie our 12-4 record. If these 4 wins came with their remaining NFC opponents (Vikes, Falcons, Pack twice) they'd also have an 11-1 conference record, which would force it to the next tie break level, which is "Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four"
The teams we played that the Bears also played are Washington, 49ers, Green Bay, and Atlanta.
Assuming both teams win out their NFC games, we'd be 4-1 against this group, and they'd also be 4-1, having already beaten the 49-ers but lost to the Skins like we did. Which would bring in "Strength of Victory" as the next tie breaker.
Chicago's Points For/Points Against stat to this point is 182/120, or a net 62. Seattle's is 296/208 or a net 88.
So, we not only have to win our NFC matchups, and win by bigger margins, but if we do choose to lose to the Colts, we can't get blown out.
Now are you happy I'm not going to go over the scenarios with the Panthers and Bucs??!!
Here's the official tie breaking rules:
Posted by alba
alba, this is great info nicely done.
ReplyDeleteI still think the Bears lose at least three more games, the Steelers Falcons and at least once to the Packers and maybe even the Vikes in the finale. I think the Bears win their division but just barely.
The Falcons and Panthers will likely split and since we already have the edge on Atlanta they shouldn't be a problem.
Caolina will lose at least two more if not three, I see Dallas and Atlanta beating them adn maybe the Falcons beating them twice, the Bucs could beat them too.
Loooking at the remaining schedules of each team the Seahawks have by far the most easy gimme wins. All the rest of these teams have much tougher schedules and the Hawks already have the lead. I think it's a no brainer that the road to the Bowl goes through Seattle, and with homefield advantage throughout, I think the Hawks make thier first ever trip to the Bowl. I really think the schedule shows that, this is not just my homer perspective, it's just looking honestly at the schedules, ours is patty cake compared to the rest.
SEAHAWKS IN THE SUPER BOWL!!!!!!
ReplyDeletePosted by vinny