I usually do the NFC West Update. Some of you were probably wondering last week, where is it? Well, it was finals. And that means I didn't have time to scout the other guys. We're done playing them. We all know what happened.
As it stands now the NFC West holds the 2nd, 7th, and 13th picks in the upcoming draft. Basically, this means the division sucked.
Bill Simmons (who is loved and adored here) wrote a column about this last week. This fine piece of literature can be found here. If you don't want to read it, I'll summarize: a lot of teams sucked this year, pariy, blah, blah, blah, I love the Patriots.
Meanwhile, while the NFL slips closer and closer to that magical year where every team goes 8-8 and the B.C. Lions are forced to play the Chicago Rush in the Super Bowl, there is an incredible player coming into the league next season. His name: Reggie Bush
The numbers don't lie: the man puts up numbers, and will probably put fans in the stands.
So, is it any wonder that some teams might intentionally lose games to get a talent like Bush, or attemp to get a higher draft pick.
So, now the question arises. Does the N-F-L institue a draft lottery? this gives anyone who didn't make the playoffs, a shot at the number one pick. This should then, keep everyone competetive throughout the season.
Great idea on paper, until you realize two things.
One, the teams are still competetive. You think Dom Capers wants to instill a losing attitude in his team? You think that attitude will magically change next year when Reggie Bush comes. No. You "play to win the game" Sidenote: Edwards' team disproved that they were trying to lose ball games by beating Oakland last Sunday)
Secondly, while teams aren't guranteed the number one pick, they can certainly give themselves a great chance of getting it. (An explanation of how the NBA version can be found here. Scroll down to Weighted Lottery System 1990-Present.
Besides that, a draft lottery goes against everything the NFL wants. The NFL wants that glorious season to come where everyone goes 8-8 and the B.C. Lions face the Chicago Rush in the Super Bowl. (By the way: that is the official name of the goal)
Lets say Pittsburgh misses the playoffs this year. They end up getting the number one pick. They were so close to the playoffs this year, and they elevated themselves by just enough to get there next season. Meanwhile, teams like Houston, San Fransisco and the Jets get screwed over just enough to stay terrible for a few more years.
And on to of all of that: if you put in a draft lottery there is no reason for anyone to watch Houston-San Fransisco in week 17. This game will be hyped because of the draft implications. If anything, the new system allows for teams to remain somewhat watchable before they begin watching the playoffs.
And in case you're wondering this week in the divion sees Arizona at Houston (draft implications) Philadelphia at St. Louis, and San Fransisco at Jacksonville.
Enjoy the games,
Alan
Alan. I love the illustrations peppered in with the commentary. Very enjoyable.
ReplyDeleteAgree that a draft lottery would be a bad thing. So what if a team tanks their season to get a high draft pick?
And is it true that they've invited Reggie Bush to be an honorary captian and handle the pre-game coin flip prior to the SF - Houston game?
Posted by alba
The reason that most that do think a draft lottery would be better is because of the salary cap. Often having the #1 pick is bad, as you have to pay a huge amount of money to a guy who may or may not be able to play in the NFL, see Ryan Leaf, and to a lesser extent, Alex Smith. He certainly hasn't helped SF with their cap problems or on the field.
ReplyDeleteA better way in my opinion, would be to cap the rookie salaries, make the contracts both shorter and smaller. Even dictate them. First pick gets a 3 year 15Mil contract. Second gets a 3 year 14.75 Mil contract, and so on.
Why does #2 pick Ronnie Brown get 20 Mil guaranteed on a 34 Mil contract (so if it pays out he'll average just under 7 Mil a year) while pro bowl RBs James and Alexander can't get anything but a one year deal at around that? Paying for what might be can and will kill a team.
If the draft is weak and the #1 team is already cap-strapped they may not be able to swing a trade. So they are stuck with a player they may not even want.
Another alternative is instead of granting the worst team the #1, give them their choice of picks. Worst team takes the 12 spot, next takes 20, next takes 3rd, etc. When they would choose their slot would be the problem here. Pick your slot too early puts a heavy burden on the scouts as they wouldn't have the board slotted yet, so they really don't know what player will be there, or even in the area. Pick your slot late and some other team could jump them and get "their guy". Of course if all teams really went BPA it wouldn't matter much. And trading spots would still be possible, if the guy is really that good then he should be drafted earlier, hence paid more.
Posted by JoSCh
JoSCh - teams already can choose a lower slot...it's called TRADING the pick. The problem is that not a lot of teams want to trade UP to that top 3 slot, unless there's a can't miss guy available (like the Giants saw in Eli) due to the salaries they demand.
ReplyDeleteI LOVE the idea of a mandated salary based on draft postion. This would encourage more teams to move up, allow a rookie not to get "stuck" in a 7 year agreement if they start tearing things up, and wouldn't delay the SECOND pick from signing until he sees the deal the FIRST pick negotiates (and so on down the line) getting guys to camp much sooner.
The only ones who WOULDN'T benefit from this are the greedy bastart agents (who cares) and rookies who may get hurt in their first few seasons (too bad, that's what insurance policies are for!)
Get Tags on the phone....PRONTO!
Posted by alba
"A better way in my opinion, would be to cap the rookie salaries, make the contracts both shorter and smaller. Even dictate them. First pick gets a 3 year 15Mil contract. Second gets a 3 year 14.75 Mil contract, and so on."
ReplyDelete:: the problem is the structure of the cap. the nfl should set up its cap more like the nba. they cap rookie deals, though they've opted to make rookie deals longer rather than shorter.
in addition to that though, what the nfl needs are about 3-5 roster exceptions per team where the team can exceed the cap by X amount to keep its own free agents.
:: how many teams in the past 5-8 years have been forced to tear down a conference champion calibur team within two years of a superbowl run because of the cap? without trying i can think of baltimore, tennessee, the giants, oakland, and tampa all having had to gut significant parts of their core due to salary cap constraints. that's not right.
:: on paper, seattle should win the nfc and lose in the superbowl to indy. assuming for a minute it plays out like that they'll be looking at an offseason where alexander and rocky bernard could conceivably walk (hutch probably gets the tag). that's not good for the league. it needs to be able to keep talented cores together.
Posted by dave
I honestly think that the 49ers will be the next team to challenge Seattle. Arizona and St. Louis both have to do some serious revamping to become competetive again. Both squads seem to be moving backwards.
ReplyDeleteThe 49ers still need to do revamping. They aren't going to go 8-8 next year. They will take their lumps, stock pile some picks, and get better and better. Mike Nolan is doing an amazing job. They work hard every game. They have the worst record in the division, and if they lose to the Texans, might have the worst record in the league. But, all of that said, they are moving in the right direction.
Posted by Alan
The lottery is stupid. A team that barely missed out on the playoffs can get a good ass draft pick and go to the superbowl next year see stupid. Teams don't lose on purpose to get a higher draft pick, well atleast i hope they don't.
ReplyDeleteThe thing that all these bad teams need is an o-line. Reggie Bush is awesome, but he can't run behind a Texns or 49ers o-line and expect to get good numbers.
49ers are the biggest threat. They are moving in the right direction, Rams are moving in the wrong direction and the Cardinals well they were supposed to win the division, and make a run at the super bowl.
"JoSCh - teams already can choose a lower slot...it's called TRADING the pick. The problem is that not a lot of teams want to trade UP to that top 3 slot, "
ReplyDeleteMy point exactly... not sure what your point is.
"I LOVE the idea of a mandated salary based on draft postion. This would encourage more teams to move up, "
Exactly, if a team can afford, get the player you need/want. If you can't, get someone who can help somewhere else.
"the nfl should set up its cap more like the nba. they cap rookie deals, though they've opted to make rookie deals longer rather than shorter." Why longer? I don't agree, I just don't see why, other than continuity. Which is nice for fans, but not nice for players on crappy teams with bad management.
"on paper, seattle should win the nfc and lose in the superbowl to indy" Gawd damn you Dave, why you got to bring that up. We've been not saying it for weeks!!! Fricking non-believer. j/k
GOX, I don't believe anything you say in your last without proof. "somewhere after that with Smith and Bush in the backfield they would be a great team!" Based on what, I'd argue that both are system players... counter viewpoints with examples are appreciated (and required to continue).
Re the 48ers (lol) "they are moving in the right direction. " yeah, but the Cards should be the next best team next year. Not sure what you were saying with the 48ers will be the next team to challenge, was that WE'LL be better next year and not challenged, or that next years Cards won't be challenging. I thing the Cards will offer up something next year. They have plenty of talent.
"Reggie Bush is awesome, but he can't run behind a Texans or 49ers o-line and expect to get good numbers. " So why should they take Bush? Can the Texans or Whiners afford to take the best LT first pick? That is their need, and that should be their pick. Wouldn't it be better for the Texans (or Whiners) to choose the 4th pick and get D'Brickashaw Ferguson (hope the Hawks don't draft him so I never have to type that nightmare again)
Posted by JoSCh
My opinion? Leave it alone.
ReplyDeleteParity rules!
And I also think the Cards (like the Hawks awhile back, are a season or two out from being competative, as are the niners. The Rams are the team with the biggest what-ifs heading outta this season. I still think the Cards are a QB and a few defensive tweaks from contributing to this being a respected division. they have the O-line and WRs.
Posted by Vin